What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny

I trust enough has been written about this book's premise by others. I found it well written and compelling if a bit long and repetitive. I would have liked to see this much more condensed, though I understand why the authors would want to add every stick of evidence they could to make their cyclical view of history as convincing as possible. As for its prophecy that the Fourth Turning is coming around soon, the 2016 Presidential election certainly adds strength to the argument. We will know soon enough if their theory proves true.

A cyclical reading of history that is probably as much cherry-picking of data and events as anything else. An interesting thought experiment, though, and showing that it is worthwhile to consider how different generations interact and how value systems tend to morph over time. Human beings have the same psychological makeup now that we have always had. The young like to rise up and revolt and make chaos, those who grow up in chaos like to establish order, those who grow up in order are free to pursue ideals, and have lots of children ...

Having read "Winter Is Coming" (by James Goulding, Jordan Watkins and Ted Sandergaard)and having started "Generations," I was curious about the changes the new century would bring. The authors have presented a very impressive amount of detailed material, encompassing history, art, literature, philosophy, and even pop culture to make their point; that human history, including the future, can be understood as recurrent interactions of four types of generation. Of concern is the political and demographic power of the post WWII "Boomer" generation, with its propensity to moralism combined with poor judgement. There are some scenarios that may play out in the immediate and near future, with educated guesses as to how the various generations will interact. Fascinating reading, even for skeptics. One caveat: Charts show up in extremely small print, which I couldn't figure out how to enlarge on either the "old" Kindle or Kindle Fire.

Started ot great with a lot of interesting information. Then it became very confusing with all the different terminology I had to flip back and forth to the table to understand the different stages and descriptions. It takes a lot of concentration.

First, I am grateful to Chris Snook for highly recommending this book. Also, I acknowledge that no brief commentary such as this could possibly do full justice to the scope and depth of information and insights that William Strauss and Neil Howe provide in abundance.

This book was first published in a hardbound edition in 1997, then in a softbound edition the following year. I suggest you keep this thought in mind when William Strauss and Neil Howe share their circa-2005 predictions that include tax rebellions throughout the United States in protest of governmental inefficiency and incompetence, global terrorism initiatives (e.g. blowing up an aircraft), foreign capital flight from U.S., and growing anarchy throughout the former Soviet republics. This is a research-driven book, as indicated by 25 pages of "Notes."

Also, at least some of the material develops in much greater depth what Strauss and Howe previously introduced in Generations: A History of America's Future (1991) and 13th-GEN (1993). I suggest that you check out the quantitative and bibliographical appendices available (Pages 455-519) in Strauss and Howe's previous book, Generations.

Here is a representative selection of key points that caught my eye:

On Turnings: "The Fourth is a Crisis, a decisive era of secular upheaval, when the values regime propels the replacement of the old civic order with the new...The fourth Turning is history's great discontinuity. It ends one epoch and begins another." (Pages 3 and 6)

On the three ways that man has measured time: (i.e. chaotic, cyclical, and linear) "The great achievement of linear time has been to endow mankind with a purposeful confidence in its own self-improvement...Yet the great weakness of linear time is that it obliterates time's recurrence and thus cats people off from the eternal - whether in nature, in each other, or in ourselves." (Page 11)

On the Anglo-American Saeculum: "The saeculum is a seasonal cycle of history, roughly the length of a long life [i.e. 80-100 years], that explains the periodic recurrences of Awakenings and Crises throughout modernity. The Anglo-American saeculum dates back to the waning of the Middle Ages in the middle of the fifteenth century." (Page 123)

On the six prior Fourth Turnings in the Anglo-American lineage:

Wars of the Roses (1459-1487), Late Medieval Saeculum
Armada Crisis (1569-1594), Reformation Saeculum
Glorious Revolution (1675-1704), New World Saeculum
American Revolution (1860-1865), Civil War Saeculum
Great Depression and World War Two (1929-1946), Great Power Saeculum

"With the partial exception of the U.S. Civil War, Each Fourth Turning followed a similar morphology." (Page 259)

On the circularity of life, but also its perpetuity: "Modern societies too often reject circles for straight lines between starts and finishes. Believers in linear progress, we feel the need to keep moving forward. The more we endeavor to defeat nature, the more profoundly we land at the mercy of its deeper rhythms." (Page 329)

On empowerment by the next Fourth Turning: "We should not feel limited, but rather empowered by the knowledge that the Fourth Turning's ekpyrosis [i.e. a Stoic belief in the periodic destruction of the cosmos by a great conflagration every Great Year] can have such decisive consequences. By lending structure to life and time, the seaculum makes human history all the more purposeful. A belief in foreseeable seasons and perceptible rhythms can inspire a society or an individual to do great things that might otherwise seem pointless." (Page 332)

Throughout years of research and analysis, Strauss and Howe located patterns that recur over time and discovered the natural rhythms of social experience. They then shared what they learned in this book, first published 15 years ago. They help their reader to understand "what the cycles of history tell us about America's next rendezvous with history." Although I carefully re-read the several hundred passages I had highlighted before composing this review, I do not claim to understand, fully, everything in the book.

We cannot predict with seamless accuracy what will happen in months and years to come. However, I agree with William Strauss and Neil Howe that we [begin italics] can [end italics] prepare for probable contingencies with initiatives guided and informed by the information insights, and wisdom they provide in this book.

Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. provides an appropriate conclusion to this review: "A true cycle...is self-generating. It cannot be determined, short of catastrophe, by external events...The roots of this cyclical self-sufficiency lie deep in the natural life of humanity. There is a cyclical pattern in organic nature - in the tides, in the seasons, in night and day, in the systole and diastole of the human heart."

Not only was this book a facinating review of history, but it's breadth was facinating. It's impact is being felt in many areas as I finally read it, because so many places and speakers quote from it. I can only recommend it as they capture certain aspects of where we've been and where we're possibly going, and what we can do about it. It's also helped me make some sense of the growing trends amongst this next generation.

Incredibly interesting to read a book nearly 20 years old & realize just how much the authors predicted have already happened.
If only more people would have heeded their warnings we wouldn't be facing such times today.

If one has contemplated cycles in human and physical events then social cycles are a short jump. I suspect that the only way that our country can get itself out... of propaganda in service of mass corruption including false flag attacks... is through a generational change and a generation that simply can not psychically beleive the deep programing... and is therefore is unable to go down the same road at their parents, grand parents and great grandparents.

Whether it is true in every line is not likely but the whole thing has the clear ring of truth and therefore given its subject of inevitable social cycles the book is an America classic and a brilliant jump of insight. Their intimation about what was to come on 2001 is chilling.

The specific data psychologically may not apply in the same way for other cultures besides American... but the principal is exactly the same. A must read.

Interesting insight in the continual flow of history and how we continue through the course of the seasons of life. While it took time for everything to come together, in the end I found this to be a very insightful and informative read.

This is a great book with some seriously interesting and insightful information - but it's D-R-Y. Mr. Strauss' writing style leaves a bit to be desired, however his insights and information are really useful - nay, important! I think everyone should give this a read so they can understand the generations they co-exist with a bit better and perhaps be a bit more aware of when good times and bad times are coming...because it's all related to us.

If you can get through the boring professor-like lecture style of writing (I take it in small doses - a chapter at a time, at best) you'll find a lot of useful information in here!

this booked sorta opened a new perspective for me to look upon our world today. the way generations are raised and the time period they were, forms them and these different layers continue to stack upon eachother allowing history to repeat itself

This book is very intresting and gives me much to reflect about now that the end of the Mayan Calendar did not produce the End of Days (no complaint there!). The authors provide an excellent description of 80-100 year cycles divided into four phases or "turnings." The book describes these cycles over the last few hundred years in the western world and their theory makes sense and is validated by their presentation of history. As I understand, both authors are historians and sociologists. When the historians are at work, I find the book readable and interesting. When the sociologists are at work it begins to be pedantic and way too involved in defining generations seeking what? I never really got why the varied and myriad systems of defining what is a generation were important. Perhaps it is my lack of intellecutal horsepower! All in all, I think that the book is valuable if one desires to understand the otherwise confusing shifts in society which most adults in the western world have experienced given that we haveprobably lived through at least two cycles. I recommend the book; please don't allow my disinterest in the defintion and identifcation of generations put you off from reading it. There is a lot of value in the overall book.

Lets you know how Steve Bannon thinks.......very scary. He thinks America is going into a Winter Season of hardship and austerity. He is preparing America with Donald Trump as his salesman for for a very difficult time. He wants America to circle her wagons and prepare for the "Winter Season". Very hard to take if you are an optimist and believe that if America promotes prosperity and opportunity for all including immigrants that America's best days are ahead of her with a Spring Time of innovation and not a Winter Time of austerity.

The theory that Strauss and Howe present has plenty of anecdotal evidence to support their arguments and the patterns seem convincing. It can be a long read but worth finishing. The information and historical patterns might be useful when deciding what planning is appropriate dependent upon where one believes we are in the fourth turning.

This book is nearly twenty years old and will STILL change forever the way you look at American history! It makes a lot more sense now. This theory should be taught in the schools.

While some of the recommendations may go a bit against the current 'popular' grain, their prognostications about the past twenty years have been pretty much spot-on.

This book was recently recommended to me as we were discussing the impending fiscal cliff of 2013.

Most of the reviews here talk in great detail about what this book covers.

What I can say is it has completely changed the lens through which I am viewing current events. I only wish I had read this amazing work 10 years ago. I can safely say it would have altered decisions I have made.

I will say that the first part of the book can get a bit monotonous as the various periods of history are explored. However, I will tell you it is worth it to pay attention and to persevere. The last 30-40% of this book will have you on the edge of your chair as you realize the authors, for the most part, saw in 1997 what is happening today. The accuracy of the predictions of life in our time is amazing.

Read this, take lots of notes, and recommend it to a friend. It is one of the essential reads of our time.

This professorial work describes a lot of why things change over time. And how they change in predictable ways. It describes overriding demographic forces that one should understand because one cannot change them.

I'm a late 50's (Boomer) science professional with a minimal knowledge of history, cause I "just wasn't interested in it" back then. I remember when this book was released, but didn't have the time (or interest) to read it back then. I remember it being controversial during those times because of the "cyclic time" theory which is an interesting concept. Here it is 13 years later and I now have the time (and interest) to check it out.

With 13 more years of history to support their arguments, it seems like the theory is being reinforced with more data. Remember, all good theories survive the test of time and additional data. The theory of gravity is still only a theory, but it does seem to grow stronger as more and more data supports the theory's premise.

As an observer of nature, we can see many cycles of events and conditions throughout the natural world. Day followed by night and repeated throughout all of recorded history. Other cycles have different time lengths, like the moon's phases and the yearly seasons of spring, summer, fall, and winter. Even longer cycles exist, such as the recently discussed "precession of the equinox" event coming in 2012.

For anyone considering this book, I can only say that nature is full of cycles of various types. It seems to be a logical step to think that these natural "cycles" can affect the inhabitants of these natural and cyclic systems. If you have an interest in social history and what may lie ahead in these times of "crisis", this book might be helpful to you. As other readers have noted, this is not a "fast" read. It's full of the data supporting their theory and for novice historians, such as myself, there's a bit of a learning curve to get through.

I tell my friends, who are interested in this theory of history, read the 1st chapter at least. Slug through it. It took me a few hours to absorb all of the information presented, but at the end of chapter 1, you'll know whether or not you'll read the rest of the book (as I am now doing). This theory seems to have more "meat" than the linear representation of history given to me while in the public school system. I probably would have taken more of an interest in history had I read this book in high school. But, as a Prophet born during the First Turning (High), that was not my generation's behavioral signature.

As we face the Fourth Turning, the Prophet elders will need to have some good data to be able to expertly guide the next generations through the Crisis. If you've ever heard the saying "Those who refuse to learn history are destined to repeat it" and think that this rings a little true, this book can give you a good insight to how history has been repeating itself and what might lie ahead.

As a scientist, I would like to see this data formally analyzed. The authors say that generations are "roughly" 20 years or so in length. They define some generations as far back as the early 1400's with specific years defining each generation. Scientists don't like words like "roughly" and want to know more specifically what the definition is. What is the standard deviation of this data? Is it 20 years plus or minus 5 years or plus or minus 10 years? I will probably try to analyze this data to some extent to see, mathematically, how strong the correlations are between the various turnings.

Overall, as I continue to read this book, it is changing my view of world and American history and seems to make more sense out of the data found in recorded history. I'm liking their theory and will continue to evaluate it's usefulness as time moves on. As I write this review on a chilly November day, we must all realize that winter WILL come again. Are you prepared?

Prophetic in a scary but helpful way. It turns out that we didn't prepare for this season of crisis when we should have. This book helps bring mental order to the chaos of national and world events that seem to be spinning out of control. There is hope that tomorrow's America will be greater but it won't be without a trial by fire. A MUST READ.

This book is very fascinating and touches on the current crisis period paradigm shift that is happening in the United States at the current moment. If you want a good mainstream book that talks about the reality of life cycles and the realistic application of them, then this is the book for you to read. I constantly quote this book to my friends when I am trying to make a point about the reality of life cycles in our lives.

This book should be MUST reading for every American, including the prequel, Generations, by the same authors. We are entering a very dangerous time in our history and these 2 books will greatly help you understand what is coming and why. They are about human behavior and that is key to understanding the world we live in. The seller is superb; I recommend them to anyone looking for good quality books. Happy 4th of July.

Strauss and Howe present a system of historical cyclicality that presents a theory of where we have been, where we are and where we will go, placing it in an American historical context. Interesting and thought provoking, the book is as relevant day as when it was written in the late 1990's.

Well written, interesting but the anti-government program bias is obvious. Sadly, people that really need Medicare and Social Security (we pay for these out of our paychecks) have no support. Politicians are not shoring up these programs and this last tax cut is going to bring benefit cuts in future. William Strauss may not want his SS or Medicare but I do since I earned them by working since I was 15.

The detailed description for what life might be like during and after a crisis is absolutely brilliant. The way they say the aged will not have the same standard of care, and the young will be given more importance is excellent. Someone had to say it. Milking old people because they have money is just not ethical for everybody. Healthcare has become a business. I would like to recommend my own new book as it takes a similar angle in that humans go through a cyclical process. Only my cycles are based on precessional movements. It sounds weird that people would be tuned to rhythme hummed by the stars, but I've got some startling findings. For more information contact me, Ben, by replying to this comment. I should have a link or something by then.

This is the single most important book ever written in all social science. It should be the foundation of all social science curriculum and history classes. Anything else that can be said of it, can be discovered by reading it.

Illuminating and fascinating. Makes you see history in a different light and causes the behavior of people to make sense. Furthermore, since Steve Bannon is a disciple of the book (albeit in a twisted way), it behooves us to know about it for that reason alone.

Strauss and Howe offer an analysis of the past 500 years of Western civilization, through the lens of generational dynamics. They are repeating (and condensing) some of their prior work in Generations, and putting more emphasis on our present reality. The authors posit that there is a four-generation cycle that has repeated itself time and time again over the past five centuries. Every fourth generation, there is a massive upheaval -- the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II being the most recent examples. They argue that we are due for the next massive crisis by about 2020 to 2025, and that all the signs of disintegration of society we see around us are patterns that have existed in the periods prior to the massive upheavals of the past. I found this book to be a page-turner; I found it incredibly difficult to put down.

If you're a church leader, read this book in conjunction with Mike Regele's book The Death of the Church, which is grounded, in large part, on the work of Strauss and Howe.

The authors contention that history repeats itself and that individuals are shaped by the time in history they live through and history is molded by individuals, appears to be correct. But the ebb and flow of history has a cadence that may not be a recurring circle.
MMc

Is history cyclical or linear? The authors of this book begin by contending that history is circular, and that the modern world has lost its bearings, in part, because of a strong belief in linear history. History, according to the authors, runs in cycles; there are inner cycles and outer cycles, many of which we might not be able to identify. The primary focus of this book is the fourth turning, or the cycle of four generations, which appears to be true throughout all cultures within history.

These four cycles are made up of four generations. In each crisis, a hero generation is born. This generation does what it takes to push the culture through, to make the society survive, through troubled times. The next generation is a generation of artists, who have been raised under the overprotective wings of their hero parents. The artists give birth to a generation of prophets, who are filled with angst, analyzing the problem. The prophets give birth to a generation of nomads, who feel like they don't fit in the world and the social structures left to them by previous generations. The generation of nomads are raised in troubled times, steeling themselves against the coming troubles the prophets have predicted, the problems caused by the hubris and overstepping of the artists before them. When the crisis comes, the heroes must rise up to save the social structure again.

What is the result of each turning? That we cannot know until the turning is past. The result of any turning is dependent on the interaction and strength of the four generations when the turning occurs, as well as the confluence of the other, overlapping cycles. The result could be a new era of freedom, or a new era of oppression through government control. The fourth turning in the US, in 1776, resulted in a republic the likes of which the world has never seen before. The fourth turning in Russia and China resulted in communist societies that have killed more than any other society in history.

The concept of cyclical history is strongly argued in this book; the charts and chapters leave little doubt that such a fourth turning does exist, and that it has a strong influence on the way history has progressed through the ages. The fourth turning cycle is not a comfortable revelation for contemporary America; the fourth turning should be hitting us just in the current timeframe, sometime between 2010 and 2012, perhaps. That this cycle overlaps with a world war cycle --we are just due for a world war based on previous cycles-- and many other cycles makes it appear that this fourth turning will be a fourth turning talked about many ages into the future, if mankind itself survives.

But while the book is well written, and does back its contentions up with solid arguments, I found it to be a bit rambling at times; there were places where I didn't really understand the organization of the information, or how to connect some specific part to the text before, and the text following. The authors also state that one of the primary forces behind a linear view of history is Christianity, which sees time beginning at a specific point, and also ending at a specific point. This is a bit of a misrepresentation of Christianity as a whole. While there are clearly parts of the Christian Church that see time as purely linear --primarily dominist-- there are other parts of the Church that see history as involving a progression of cycles. This part of the Church believes that while history is cyclical, it is also linear; that history progresses in a somewhat linear way, but it does so through cycles that can be identified and understood to give us a better view of the future, and the nature and state of man.

This book has more information than most libraries. This book is not a sunday afternoon read....Plan on reading a few pages at a time, then digest. Not sure when the book was written, but it seems most of the predictions are pretty much right on. First half of the book sets the stage in history. The last quarter of the book well applies to the chaos of today and tomorrow too I think