How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future

Roy and Michael know how to stir up a conversation. What happened before is only a precursor to what will happen next. Who we are collectively? What is the current mood? Are you in or out of step? Once you ingest this you will not see the world the same. You might even be more thoughtful about your next sentence. And your next move. If you are thinking or a doing person, then put this into your shopping basket. We are headed to a "WE" time period. Are you ready?

An enlightening read and helpful as we try to understand society. I refer back to it often and refer others to read it. Anyone in sales and marketing will find the informatiin helpful and the tips in the latter chapters beneficial.

This book was very helpful in explaining the whys behind trends that I had noticed and often wondered what was behind them, from fashion to music to overall attitudes. After reading this, I can see why my parent's generation often has seemed more materialistic and personal achievement oriented, whereas the younger generation seems more driven to come together and make social change and has less concern for status. It is also helpful to know where society will likely go next in order emphasize the positives and avoid the pitfalls, as well as to assist in effective communication that will resonate with where most people are at with goals and values.

Before the book was even published earlier this month, I saw two presentations, one in '09 and one last year, on this subject. It was spell-binding and totally believable. Michael Drew is a good friend, and runs in the same circles with others I admire and respect. Information is the key to success. This is a must read.

I find the concept interesting. I even encouraged others to get it and gave it as a gift. However, although I agree that history/historical cycles repeat, I believe they shape and give clues to the future rather than "predicting" it. Words have meaning, and predict is too strong, in my opinion, for this concept. What it does do is offer hope for successfully bucking the trends!

Roy Williams explains so much about culture. Lots of great foot for thought in how our culture works and why our marketing messages connect and miss the mark. This book will really challenge your views on traditional marketing in our modern age.

I was disappointed in the book. I thought it was fairly obtuse. A friend had recommended it, which is why I read it. If a reader is particularly interested in marketing, I suspect s/he would find the book very interesting. That wasn't why I read it, so I didn't find it very useful. Sorry

The thesis of the book is that history progresses in repeated patterns and at predictable intervals and it's been doing this for at least three thousand years.
Know how people want to be communicated to in the cycle and you will reach them better.
Anyone in business, advertising, or politics needs to read Pendulum.

I have seen Roy Williams speak twice and read several of his previous books (Wizard of Ads) but I was disapointed with this one. I found his points repetitious and nt as well supported as I have come to expect from him.

There is a compelling amount of evidence presented in this book that Western society swings from an individualistic "Me" culture to a civic-minded "We" and back over 80 years. According to this fascinating book, we are swinging up into a "We" society, a society that will look more like WW II America than the America that elected a movie star for President.

If you choose to read it, you are going to begin to see signs of shifts in the headlines of your daily newspaper or in the feed reader of your Smartphone. We are starting to see in the headlines an America that is gathering around causes. We are also seeing a low tolerance for those who don't fit. The polarization in Washington is one big sign. Even the politicians are "taking sides" and there is little tolerance for moderate positions outside the party lines.

Stories and movies about going green, ending Madison Avenue style advertising, and eliminating processed foods are prolific. These were once hippy sentiments in our individualistic days, but these causes have gone mainstream as our civic society has begun to form groups and work together.

If the book is to be believed, we will soon start to see intolerance and even suppression of outliers. Will the parents of obese children be ostracized at PTA meetings? Will our homes be egged if we don't have solar panels on our roofs? We will find out by the time our Pendulum reaches the top of another swing in 2023.

For anyone in advertising or marketing, this book is a must. It will tell you why our communications have stopped working and what to do about it.

As with any good book, this one raises many questions as it delivers its insights. I highly recommend it.

First, full disclosure: I'm a business partner with Roy Williams and a friend of Mike Drew's. If you want to take my review with a grain of salt because of this, I understand. But I think the intriguing and compelling ideas presented in this book are able to speak for themselves, quite apart from whatever my personal endorsement might bring to the table.

Here's what I mean by that: just every 80 years we have a massive big time civic crises (usually involving wars). So you can think of the revolutionary war, civil war, and WWII. All pretty much 80 years apart, give or take a few years. In between you have spiritual awakenings, which are also 80 years apart, making each "awakening" about 40 years out from a civic crises. Of course, spiritual awakenings last a bit longer than wars, but the first "Great Awakening" started in 1720 and ended in 1750, with a mid period 1735. The second Great Awakening starts in 1800 and lasts till 1840, with a midpoint at 1820. The third Great Awakening starts early, but ends about on time, going from 1850-1910 and making the midpoint at 1880. And then there's the 60's, aka "The Fourth Awakening" happening 80 years after 1880. Civic Crises and Spiritual Awakenings occur like clockwork, alternating every 40 years.

Now, if you're a critical thinker, you're probably thinking to yourself that that's an interesting pattern/theory, but there are some holes and questions, right? How do you know I'm not cherry-picking events to fit the pattern and leaving out events that don't fit? And, what if this pattern does really exist -- so what?

In Pendulum, Roy and Michael Drew did the hard research to prove that the pattern is real, that it still exists even when the data is exhaustive and the researcher sets out to disprove the pattern, and that the pattern goes back thousands of years. More importantly, they show the WHY behind the cycles. Every 40 years society moves from an Idealist to a Civic mindset, and that 2003 represented one of those shifts, away from Idealist and into Civic, just as 1963 marked the beginning of a shift away from Civic and into the Idealist "Sixties" era "Me Generation." This is why "being cool" morphed into "Keeping it real." Why the very slick James Bond got Jason Bourned into a far more flawed and vulnerable human being, and so on.

Obviously, major societal shifts like this are pretty important for anyone who considers herself a leader, communicator, persuader, or business person. If you fit into one of those categories, I strongly recommend the book. And regardless of how you classify yourself, if you want to learrn more about this stuff in a fairly quick, enjoyable read -- and especially if you want to know how this pattern will affect you and the people you care about in the coming years -- you should get this book.

It's a book of big ideas and actionable insight in a an engaging, enjoyable package. What more could you want?

Williams and Drew capture the essence of societal shifts in a clear and succinct manner. By clear and verifiable citation of research spanning 3 millenia they theorize a pattern that seems quite plausible, if not probable.

For those who have interest in human behavior patterns, or discovery of trends in music, art, literature, politics, or consumer habits; this book may well "scratch your itch".

Pendulum strikes at the heart of one of our culture's most prized values; determining the bottom line. The author offers a substantial amount of data in support of their "bottom line" theory.

Take a day and read this book. You won't be disappointed. Then if you're really bold, subscribe to their weekly podcast or visit the campus in Austin. I plan too...and soon!

Pendulum is an interesting read about the behavior of humans and what makes them act the way they do. Rather than point to charismatic leaders, generational differences, or the other usual culprits, this book proposes a different theory: the idea that the way people behave can be based on a simple measure of time periods. According to the book, as decades pass, humans go through periods marked by individualism followed by periods marked by collectivism. The span from one extreme to the next is forty years and the changes have been going on like clockwork, from the earliest recorded history to the present.

This is certainly an interesting book that discusses an interesting topic and it does get you thinking about different time periods, your own experience in the more current time periods, and whether or not the way people behaved corresponds with the book's main thesis. Thinking back over the last few decades, I can clearly see how some of what this book says appears to be true. For example the zenith of the "me" (individualistic) was reached as recently as 1983 and if you think back to that time and the few years before and after, you will recall that individual focus was very much the norm. Musical artists wore elaborate costumes and advertising was focused on individual identity and being yourself. Right now, we are moving toward the zenith of a "we" (collectivists) and will reach it in 2023, after which the pendulum will start to drop back and move toward the other extreme.

What causes these inevitable cycles from one extreme to the next? The authors point out that it is the human tendency to keep moving in a certain direction because it not only feels right, but seems morally right. Then, things inevitably are taken too far and a counter movement develops, pulling everyone slowly back the other way. We keep moving toward one direction until we take it way too far and the cultural forces bring us back to reality, but then overcompensate and take us too far the other way, before another counter culture develops and changes things in another direction. The pendulum continues to swing like this and there is no reason to doubt it will not continue to do the same thing in the future.

I find this book and its theory interesting overall, but one problem I have with this book is that it doesn't offer any scientific proof of its ideas. It does its best to back itself by offering up some good examples that prove its main points, but just because examples exist to back it up doesn't necessarily make it so. Official research would be great to convince the reader and better prove the theory. For example, rather than mention popular movies during one of the me periods that seem to prove that society was moving in that direction, it would be helpful to see a statistical analysis of ALL the popular movies during these timespans and show the percentage that back up the authors' claims. This would provide more definitive proof that what the book proposes really is true.

Society inevitably changes and will likely continue to change from now to eternity. This book offers a nice explanation for these changes and presents some good examples to back itself, along with plenty of illustrations to keep the time frames better organized. Official research would make the book better, but it does have much to offer and I recommend it to all.

Impactful. The authors do a heroic job of putting a timeline of critical historical events and showing the ebb and flow of trends. The tides shift each generation, about every 40 years, according to the authors. Understanding these crucial (previous) milestones in relation to our own current timeline help predict what is yet to come. In so doing, we can better address and penetrate the needs of our customers.

As for writing style, the majority of the book is factoid after factoid. It's written in an "almanac" sort of way, which is somewhat annoying. The authors don't really engage the reader and draw them in. It's not until the last two chapters of the book (if you can make it that far) that the authors finally get it together and tell the reader how all these factoids impact the reader.

Topic Relevance: I give it 4 stars.
Writing Style and engagement: 2.5 stars.

It would have been immensely helpful if the authors would have had one chart with the entire 80 year timeline instead of constantly writing about "upswings, fulcrums, and zeniths". A picture is worth a thousand words.

Linda Gross, The Men's Advocate.
Author of THE CAVEMAN FORMULA.
http://www.the store.com/dp/B00B0594II/?tag=dt4m-20

I have followed Roy Williams for over a decade. From my early days learning the art and science of advertising, I have found his viewpoints incredibly valuable. This book fleshes out a key idea presented in the Wizard of Ads series and the Monday Morning Memos. That idea is that the traditional advertising and marketing fixation on birth cohort marketing leaves a lot to be desired. Rather, Williams and his co-author Michael Drew, drive into the storytelling and narrative of Western Culture to unearth a different type of generation: one that sits along the arc of a pendulum swinging from the pull of the "We" Consciousness to the pull of the "Me" Consciousness. The authors do an excellent job in showing how this continuum affects pop culture and thought. Reading it in 2016, one might be forgiven for thinking that they essentially predicted the rise of Donald Trump, Brexit, and Bernie Bros.
Readers might find the main value of the book to arise from seeing our pop culture in a new light from the "baby boomer", "gen x" and "millenial" nonsense (for instance, I just recently found out that at 52 years old, I am a "millennial traveller" and always have been because I avoid touristy places, take mass transit and am willing to couch-surf). I've always thought that if marketers are going to use birth cohorts, why not the Western or Chinese zodiac. However, I think that the real value is gaining an appreciation of how to approach the next forty years (perhaps more if you are younger). Understanding that the zenith of the current "We" comes around 2023, seeking for the signs of the "Me" around 2033, and understanding that the period from 2037 to 2049 will be an exciting time of transition from the We-Me, provides those in the role of telling their (or their organization's) stories, those seeking to explore new ideas, and others just interesting in trying to make sense of the world with a strong model with which to work. This is especially true even today in thinking how the current Black Lives Matter movement differs in terms of energy and leadership from the Me era of key leaders (of course, the technology of the phone camera and streaming video is a key difference).
The downside of the book and the idea rests in its light treatment. This theory could use a dissertation level of research and discussion. The book is quite light and some of the lists seem to be there more to add to the page count than anything. It can be a bit repetitive as well. The base of the pendulum certainly moves and it moves in a way that is not evolutionary. It would be interesting to see Williams' pendulum metaphor applied to Foucault's Discipline and Punish. A short-coming of the book arises from its very narrow Western gaze. It continues the narrative of colonialism that sees the spread of Western culture as bringing enlightenment to the world and the heavy use of biblical history which provides an argument that this pendulum has a pre-ordained nature to it. The pendulum may really be more the result of capitalism and its tendency to swing from crisis to crisis as it further consolidates wealth.
All in all, it is worth a read if you engage in building narratives for your organization, yourself, or others. It can help you hone in on the zeitgeist and provide the means to stay relevant as the pendulum moves along its arc.

Full Disclosure : I met the co-Author Michael Drew at a Team Retreat for my previous company.

Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future is one of those books that pique's your interest in the clairvoyance of society trends based on invisible forces. It provides you with the Help File or Cheat Sheet as to what people around you react to and how you can predict their response.

This gives you valuable insight into various niches of running a business and applies to you irrespective of your business size or your role in the company which is what really excites me. There's a treasure trove of information for a Marketing Exec, to a small business owner right up to the CEO of a Multi-National Corporation. ( I know this because i use to play that role or work directly for the person who did).

Its the best few hours I spent on a Saturday evening reading, and both Roy and Michael have a great voice throughout the book which did an amazing job keeping me engaged. They presented their theory in a very rational and organized manner which made the logic progression easy to follow and also helped me formulate the bigger picture framework that I then proceeded to use to analyse certain roadblocks I had with my current business.

The only reason I am not giving them the full five star rating is because I would have loved to see more examples quoted from other forms of belief and slightly more visual timelines ala Infographics ( I'm a picture/visual guy ).

Overall :: I highly recommend checking Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict Our Future out. Feel free to ping me for any further questions if you have any.

The premise of this book is an interesting one.

As to whether these shifts really occur, the author does provide a lot of supporting evidence.
and also, looking at the present situation, the findings can be confirmed.

I will certainly be keeping my eyes open for more corresponding evidence in the future.

Also learnt some further fascinating facts about the futurist Faith Popcorn, whose book the Popcorn
report I had read many years ago.

On the downside, I found the book to be a bit of a clunky read, and feel that better diagrams
and charts would have been more helpful with the timelines.

The authors certainly do have some quality name endorsements as well, which is the main reason
I chose to read it.

Recommend you get a copy and see for yourself.

Disclosure: I reviewed this book as a member of the 12 books club.

This book provides an EXCELLENT example of a business philosophy that is truly in tune with today. There is a clear shift in society today. As a result, businesses must adapt not out of choice, but out of necessity. If they don't, they'll be left behind. Their revenues would begin to dry up in a matter of months because they would've lost connection with their target market and their target market with them. It's apparent that there's a massive swing away from the me, me, me viewpoint and towards a much more civic, harmonious, and "can't we all just get along" community belief system. Pendulum explains this SHIFT and gives guidance on how to adapt. Think about it. If this is happening to business in general, wouldn't it make sense to apply this insight to your business? Pendulum includes the most applicable and relevant approach to today's marketplace. The scandals that have become prevalent over the last decade have caused a strong distrust for Corporate America and any marketing message they employ. As a result, people (i.e. your target market) have a sense for anything without positive intentions. They're more apt to rely on product recommendations from their peers than any manufactured message. This is seen in the meteoric rise of popularity in websites such as Yelp and Foursquare (and to some extent aspects of Facebook, Twitter, and even LinkedIn). Pendulum explains why this has happened. Absolutely love the concept that: "The new goal is to say something POWERFUL, instead of saying something POWERFULLY."

If you want to understand your market, where it is, where it was and where it is headed, this is the book to read. Hate pop culture? Hate the younger generations music/platforms etc? You are going to find yourself in a pickle when it comes to marketing to that culture over the next few years. This book can help bridge the gap between your current marketing and the future marketing that will be the only effective tool to market to this age group in the near future.

Gia Heller
CEO
[...]

In 1991, William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote a groundbreaking work called "Generations", which came up with the theory of four generational archetypes which repeat in a four-stroke pattern of U.S. history. In 1997 the same authors reiterated this theme in "The Fourth Turning", with special relevance to the next turn in the cycle, which they projected would start in the mid-2000s (it was in actually in 2008 when the nation realized it was suddenly in a new era that felt different). They projected a Crisis of 2020, in which any outcome could happen, but it would be one that reshaped the nation and would leave everything prior to that era in the past, just as the 1930s suddenly seemed ancient to 1950s America.

I can only attribute all the glowing reviews of Pendulum to the fact that the reviewers have been unaware of the theory and prophecies of Generations and The Fourth Turning. Williams and Drew should have left the works stand alone, instead of trying to tinker with them. The "me" and "we" dichotomy is not sufficient to explain the generational rhythms, and is not sufficient to describe what happens next.

I give two stars for effort, but zero for originality. This is a case of a plagiarized idea that gets diluted and even dumbed down.

...are condemned to repeat it" George Santayana tells us. In this visually interesting, engagingly written and wonderfully laid out book, we journey through the twentieth century link between music, marketing, and the needs, desires, and motivating factors of the western world. Within this book we get to learn how to not only NOT be condemned to repeat the marketing messaging mistakes of the past, but get rewarded, through the understanding of this information, to make your message the most powerful message it can be for today's audience. If you have a dream, a message, or even a product that you are bringing to the world and want to do it in the biggest and most enduring of ways, this book gives you key information on how to do so. I am making everyone who handles the presentation of my message, products, and services become familiar with this information and work it into our marketing.

This book may actually have been as entertaining as it was a concise guide to knowing my target market. It discusses in-depth the rise of popular cultural ideals in a way that almost makes it as fun as a novel. It's historical popular cultural analysis and common sense prognostications certainly changed my paradigm on marketing, and has helped me really figure out how to make money in this economy. GET THIS BOOK!! Game-changing for me!

This is a fascinating book! It includes tons of data going back 3000 years to prove their theory of these 40-year cycles. I can see just in recent history and even in today's current events how the cycle is holding true. History is repeating itself!

It includes numerous examples from literature,music and technology to show the cycles in action. I would like to have seen more practical tips for how to apply this to my business. It's a great book, but now what do I do with it?

I would recommend this book to anyone who wants to know where we're headed in the next few decades.

(P.S.--I looked up more information on the book and found that the authors do have a program that shows you how to apply this theory. Looking forward to checking that out.)

The amazing insight and information that you will discover in the Pendulum will truly
give you a crystal ball into the cultural mindset of now and the future and can be an accurate and compelling "paradigm template" for your marketing messages that will help skyrocket your results.
Michael Drew is a brilliant mind, and a humanitarian heart - and this runs throughout his amazing message. Read this book or be left behind!

I was really surprised reading this... in fact, I'm pretty shocked to see such blatant patterns in society that I've never noticed before. Now that I've read the book, it's funny how many things I can identify now as falling into this pattern. Even when watching the new Batman movie the other day I just kept thinking how this totally fits in with the theory behind Pendulum (the social environment it portrays completely aligns with the peak of a 'We' cycle). If like me, you're the type who likes things like brainpickings.org, Monocle, and cultural creative stuff, this book is right up your street :-)

I appreciated reading how the collection and variation of society influences aided to illustrate throughout the book how these factors effect the pendulum swings in our society. Once this was communicated the author then pointed out how this could help me, the reader to communicate to people during this period of the society swing.

Love the book and the presentation. I had a master plan for a few books and products that I plan to create and release and this helped me realize that my most interesting book was going to be released at the wrong time and that it would probably flop if I did that. I really appreciate the insight and research that was done to create this powerful and useful work.

I also LOVED the formatting of the book. Very easy to read and very clear with lots of charts, coloring, diagrams, photos, etc.

I will do a more detailed review at [...] at some point.

When I first saw this concept presented by Roy Williams at the Wizard Academy I was floored. So many things beginning to happen in 2004 now made sense. I immediately went home and began to incorporate this information into my daily business. I have been waiting for the book to come out for quite some time and now that it has it doesn't disappoint. A handy reference now in hardcover I use it successfully to predict the future. I'd like to add that if you are under age 25 or so this book definitely helps you understand your parents!

I learned so much about markets and trends from this book and from the videos in the membership area for the book. The presentation is very interesting and intriguing and will help business owners understand how society is thinking and use that to their advantage in their marketing. Definitely recommend this book to any business owner or marketer.

I was invited to review this book. I was intrigued by the jacket, "Pendulum chronicles the stuttering history of western society; that endless back and forth swing between one excess and another ..."

However, the book isn't what I'd have expected from that description. I'd never heard (or heard of) the authors.

Pendulum essentially says that change happens in 40-year cycles; from what I understood the first 20 years are "me" and the second 20 years are the "we." That's the kind of concept I'd enjoy hearing at a live event, preferably after a nice dinner.

The distinction between "we" and "me" isn't truly unique or original. The authors go to great lengths to find examples among books, movies and songs. I was a little disconcerted by the authors' summary of themes, which seemed somewhat arbitrary.

The book itself reflects contemporary values with a strong layout and
creative use of graphics. It's almost an infographic made into a book. However, some of the text was hard to read (orange type on a tan background). Given the way many of us read these days, by skimming rather than reading carefully the way we'd read textbooks, I was surprised at the book's flow. It's hard to dip into a section and know what's going on.

However, I did enjoy some of the snippets of information. I didn't know that Faith Popcorn had predicted email and ecommerce. At the same time, the authors can be creative as they use concepts; I'm baffled by the sentence, "The Law of Probability would tell us that an equal number of leaders working forthe common good should be found at Zeniths of 'Me.'"

Generally, I think this book would work when it accompanies or follows a life presentation. I also think it would help to have a more accurate description on the book jacket and on the copy sent to prospective reviewers.

Authors Williams and Drew offer incredible insight into our past, present and future. If you enjoyed Boom, Bust and Echo, you'll love Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape our Present and Predict our Future.

This is a pretentious book, claiming to lay ground-breaking knowledge about demographic trends, but in reality it is just a catalog of the authors' opinions and pages of lists of popular songs that seem to agree with their hypothesis. It is particularly annoying that the author continues to quote himself as an authority. Yes, we know that society tends to swing back and forth (Pendulum) in cycles of individualism and collectivism, but the point could have been made more succinctly and more persuasively without all the vanity. I read it all, and I am prepared for the witch hunt that is coming. Blah.

This book was very helpful in explaining the whys behind trends that I had noticed and often wondered what was behind them, from fashion to music to overall attitudes. After reading this, I can see why my parent's generation often has seemed more materialistic and personal achievement oriented, whereas the younger generation seems more driven to come together and make social change and has less concern for status. It is also helpful to know where society will likely go next in order emphasize the positives and avoid the pitfalls, as well as to assist in effective communication that will resonate with where most people are at with goals and values.

Pendulum is a poorly written "historical" book. Within this work, Williams and Drew attempt to make a constructive argument on generational trends, but it is more of a haphazard collection of charts, quotes and lists. Having little structure, the authors historical points are weak, limited and, in my opinion, lacking clarity.

This book reinvents how generational trends influence a culture and is not a new to most historians. I would recommend a number of other books on this subject - including one referenced on page 8 within this book.

In summary - I do not like this book and DO NOT RECOMMEND BUYING THIS BOOK