The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder

Zeihan is a great geopolitical thinker and this book distills his work in a very concise, readable and entertaining way. More then that, the last 12 months have really showed the relevancy of his predictions, coming on even faster then he had anticipated (more on that in The Absent Superpower, another must read).

If you are interested in the larger view about what is happening in the world, where we are going and why someone like Trump was going to be the next president regardless of the politics of the USA then this is the book for you. It puts our current events into a less-shrill and more understandable context that gives you hope (or despair, depending on where you live).

Its a quick and interesting read. For a taste of this check out Zeihan on YouTube. His Oklahoma City Chamber of Commerce and Soybean council talks are both great introductions to his research and just a blast to watch.

Needless to say, Zeihan is on my top 10 'want to get a beer with this guy' list.

A fascinating read. A giant geography lesson. A chance to see our competitors through a giant picture window. A very rosy projection of The United States well into the twenty first century. Was anything missed that might cloud the dream ? Let's all stay tuned with eyes wide open and hearts of mercy. As Americans, let us not create monsters like those of The Roman Empire. Instead, let us heed the signals given to us by one of its noble citizens, Pope Francis. Carpe Diem.

One of the best and most readable books published on politics and economics. So well researched that I've recommended it to many friends and associates who, like me, bought the hard cover copy to have as a reference in the coming years.

Another Great one! Zeihan adds to the brilliance of his “Accidental Superpower” with this awesome next chapter. I’ll read whatever he puts out in the geopolitical realm. If he’s right (and I bet he is), the world is going to get pretty crazy in the next twenty years.

An excellent macro-summary of the impact of the shale gas & oil revolution on the current state of geopolitics and its implications for future US prospects. If one grants Zeihan his first premises -- he's a geographic determinist, then his argument seems not only plausible but possible. In addition, he is a fine writer with a highly readable style.

An amazing book detailing how geography, fracking and demography combine to make the United States the power in the future. Zeihan has a unique view of the world that I have recommended to my friends and family that they have appreciated. The most interesting, informative book I have read in the last 5 years.

Fun, fast moving, interesting ideas. I am not versed in geopolitical matters, but I suspect some conclusions. The book is just too readable; for example, what if Alberta became a US state. Logically, there is some sense to this idea (everybody should be better off, Americans and Albertans, although Canada as we know it would fall apart). The author says he has no idea if it will happen, Well, I am a US citizen and permanent resident of Alberta, I doubt it.

This book makes a valid and compelling argument as to why the US has become and will remain a superpower.

It connects the dots of many events that have shaped world history with what has happened domestically. It gave me an understanding of how and where the US is economically.

A must read especially if you are interested in having a better understanding of how the world economy works and why the US is it's leader.

I found this book interesting, informative, balanced and well worth reading. In fact I have recommended it several times to others. His use of geography, demographics, and economics makes for a very well-informed and non-partisan look at the world situation and our place in it. Highly recommended.

This book brings an interesting geographic & demographic heavy perspective to IR prediction. While he boldly makes predictions, this book may suffer from too much linear thinking. While demographics may be destiny, his causal logic is sometimes weak, and fails to account for potential unit level changes in policy.

Excellent geopolitical text written with ironic humor. The first half of the book sums up world history and specifically US history to the present time, largely formed and influenced by world geography, existential threats, natural transportation routes, availability of capital, and demographics. The second half focuses on predictions for the future - as soon as 2020 - on where the world is going driven by these same criteria. The book was released in 2014 and some of his predictions are already starting to become visible. Essentially, the author presents a case that the USA - and its meteoric rise as a world power - is exceptional. This American exceptionalism, however, is not due primarily to the endeavors of its people or as manifest destiny, but instead is the result of the combination of unique geopolitical forces that make the US a nexus of positive attributes more than any other place in the world. And yes, the author oversimplifies a lot of historical events and yes the author ignores the impact of great leaders on the ultimate outcome of events. Nonetheless, Peter Zeihan puts forth some very rationale, fascinating and provocative ideas. Read it!

This was one of the most interesting and thought provoking books I have read in some time. Anyone interested in understanding the history and future of the world's geopolitical landscape should read this book.

Great book. Recommended by The CNN commentaro Farid Zakarah. Incisive discussion of major geographical and economic trends that predict the positive economic future for the US. Example, the US has more incountry rivers than most of the rest of the world put together--safe and cheap transportation. This was as inyeresting as Guns, Germs and Steel.

Very interesting and unique read. Hard to tell if the author's analysis that today's free-trad world was the intent of Bretton Woods or if the author attributes it in hindsight (which we know is 20/20), but either way it is insightful and engaging.

The author is very original and creative, has some interesting insights, but is also limited by his approach. He seems to think that the U.S. would be unconcerned if enemies took over Eurasia, so long as we don't need them for trade or raw materials. He plays strategic games, what-if scenarios, as though no one had invented nuclear weapons. Finally, his optimistic prognosis for America has one huge blind spot -- global warming. What if the U.S. can no longer grow sufficient food because of drought and the dwindling of the underground acquifers on which farming depends in the Plains States? The forecast on fracking assumes that the use of fossil fuels will still be acceptable in an era of sharply rising CO2 which produces extreme weather and global warming.

While there are certainly other factors that may influence the future of the world, the author provides a fascinating perspective that is rarely (if ever) included in other historical/future outlooks. He makes a strong case for the geopolitical influences that have and will shape our world, and presents that information in a interesting way. It can help you to see current events in a broader historical context.

I just finished reading The Accidental Super Power, The Next Generation of American Preeminence and The Coming Global Disorder, by Peter Zeihan. One thing I think can be agreed upon - he’s clearly brilliant - and I think his analysis of the internal workings of the world’s nations is spot on. From the history, to the demographics, to the geography and the paradigms they create, his work explains so much of why nations leaders are doing what they’re doing, especially the Chinese and the Russians. Many of these views are views I’ve expressed in the past but never with the depth and expanse of information he’s put together. I’ve know about Bretton Woods for years, and I thought I knew a lot about Bretton Woods. I was wrong! He’s added dimensions to this I never grasped or organized it in the way as has this author.

Since I’ve been reading this book I’ve asked everyone if they ever heard of Bretton Woods, and invariable almost no one has, and those that have heard of it had no idea what it was all about. This is a book that needs to be read by anyone with an interest in history, policy, current events and long range thinking.

I agree with his analysis that Bretton Woods will end soon and a gradual international contraction by America I believe is beyond doubt. But the reader should keep some things in mind.

First, prediction is very difficult – especially about the future! As he talks about the end of the Bretton Woods era you will see there’s understandable difficulty in defining when and to what degree it will occur.

Secondly, there is little discussion on the impact of Islamist immigrants will make on countries like Russia and all the European countries that are breeding themselves out of existence. Russia is losing ethnic Russians at such a startling rate Russia’s future existence as we know it is in doubt. What happens when or if Islamists outnumber the ethnic Europeans or their numbers become so large civil war erupts all over Europe?

Third, just as nature abhors a vacuum, so do does “power”. If America withdraws to the extent he’s predicting these countries will demand someone step in to save them. That will be the United Nations. He ignores that as a potential. He’s far too smart not to see that potential, especially since there are so many efforts by so many, especially in the E.U., to expand the U.N.’s power and reach, as is outlined in any number of U.N. treaty initiatives such as Agenda 21 and the Law of the Sea Treaty, which would give it income of its own. Therefore I have to conclude he deliberately left that out. And I have to ask – why?

If all occurs as he’s predicting – and I think much of it will – he has to see the U.N. as a much bigger player in the future. He outlines how the Bretton Woods era will end, but the goal has been and, will still be, to prevent the very conflicts and wars he discusses and to keep the sea lanes open. So will the concept of Bretton Woods end or will it merely be transferred to the UN? Will the UN be the power broker nations will want in the enforcement arena, including giving them taxing power, their own military, and use of deep sea naval power via the right to control American, British and Japanese naval forces? I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen. I also think “every “country - including the U.S. - will buy into that. As one author pointed out - there's a difference between a global government and global governance.

That much control exercised by the most corrupt incompetent organization the world has ever known is a scary thought, but his long range rosy picture of America’s economic future has that one big cloud over it. If the U.N. gets the authority I’m describing they will find ways to confiscate all the economic renewal generated by America and give it to the rest of the world. He has to see that potential, and yet he ignored it. I have to wonder why?

Even with all the caveats I’ve listed I really think this book is foundationally important to mold everyone’s thinking and views. This is a must read!

As usual Peter Zeihan does commendable job of laying out his geopolitical hypothesis for the next 15 years. I found this theory of the world's geopolitical trajectory much more plausible than previous books by George Friedman (Zeihan's old boss).

As usual Peter Zeihan does commendable job of laying out his geopolitical hypothesis for the next 15 years. I found this theory of the world's geopolitical trajectory much more plausible than previous books by George Friedman (Zeihan's old boss).

A fascinating look at the geopolitical and demographic of history as well as where we are today. An insightful look at today's world with a sobering view of what could be happening in the near and somewhat distant future.

Put a new perspective on my appreciation of how geology, geography and resources can affect how a country develops. Finally explained why Mexico and Central America are having so much trouble developing. Was amazed at the prediction of Canada breaking up- even though it seems logical. I believe that many of the points made by Mr. Zeihan are valid. However, (yes there is one), do not believe that the human element is adequately worked into the equation. I do heed his warning about drug gangs being the USA's greatest risk and why we need to do something positive about the immigrant population to preclude this risk. I like his idea- based on elections I seem to be in the minority.
Believe this book was a valuable primer on geopolitical thinking. So much so that sent a copy to my daughter's fiancé as something to read and in understand as a Marine officer. (I was Navy officer and wish had read something like this)

The book consists of three parts. The first part of the book reviews the key role that geography has played in history, focusing particularly on the geographical advantages enjoyed by the United States. The second part deals with two recent developments: the aging populations in most developed countries and the resulting demographic squeeze, and the shale revolution, which is making the United States energy-independent.

The first two parts are generally factual and interesting. However, the author provides no sources for the many facts and figures cited. This is a major flaw of the book, and it is quite unusual for a book of this type. The reader should not just have to take the author’s word that everything he states is correct. Citing sources also makes it easier for readers to explore further topics they find of special interest.

The third part of the book discusses, within a geopolitics framework, the consequences for different regions of aging demographics and the US’s new energy independence. This is the weakest part of the book. The author makes a number of questionable assumptions, a major one being that the only factors that matter are demographics, energy independence or dependence, and geography. While these are certainly important, it ignores other important factors, such as the quality of institutions or of human capital.

A key assumption that drives the analysis in the book is that with its new-found energy independence, the US will withdraw from international institutions such as the Bretton Woods framework or NATO. The author’s reasoning is that with no potential enemies in the western hemisphere, and protected from the rest of the world by the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, the US has no motivation to maintain international institutions such as Bretton Woods. This line of reasoning may have been valid up to the first part of the 20th century, but not in an age where intercontinental ballistic missiles can reach the US in minutes from the other side of the world, and where other countries can position submarines with nuclear weapons off the coast of the United States.

The weakest part of the book is the chapter on China. The author dismisses the astonishing growth of the Chinese economy over the last three decades with the remark that “When you don’t care about prices or output or debt or quality or safety or reputation, your economic growth is truly impressive”. I have no idea what point the author is trying to make – there was often little concern for quality or safety when the US economy was growing at a similar rate in the 2nd half of the 19th century - and he cites no sources to elaborate on this statement. China’s forays into Africa, and other places, which could be considered strategic moves to secure raw materials, are dismissed as “economically ridiculous”. Again, no sources are cited to back up this claim, nor is the claim backed up by any arguments or data. As a final example, the author states that China has always been a “non-naval” nation, and that deep-water navigation was unknown there until the 18th century. The author seems unaware of the many voyages by the Chinese to South Asia, the Middle East and East Africa in the early 15th century, under the command of Admiral Zheng He.

Mr Zeihan buys completely into the "geographic determinism" school of thought, with some "demographic determinism" thrown in. He almost completely ignores culture...that strange brew of history, tradition, race, religion, etc. He does an occasionally decent job of touring the world and identifying some potential trouble areas. Geography IS very important. But it is not a trump card.

Canada is not going to split up. China probably will not. And, the USA has some strong internal culture wars going on.... We'll see.