The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis
ByJames Rickards★ ★ ★ ★ ★ | |
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆ | |
★ ★ ★ ☆ ☆ | |
★ ★ ☆ ☆ ☆ | |
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆ |
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Readers` Reviews
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
jeremiah satterthwaite
A lucid explanation of complex systems that's a must read if you want to understand how economic shocks of the past will be repeated and AMPLIFIED by many orders of magnitude in the future by: extremely entangled variables, instant communication, synthetic money, currency war, cyber attacks, and the elite's drive to stay in control. The resultant government actions will mean the end of our liberties as we know (and believe in) them today. However, there ARE things you can do to prepare...
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
zaydman mikhail
A MUST read. Rickard does it again. Anyone who has an interest in protecting their wealth needs this information in order to make the choices necessary. There is a financial storm coming. This book tells once clearly how to find shelter to weather what may be truly hard times in the US and developed world.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
atul purohit
I learned about the history of money as currency and what is the difference between them. Although some topics in the book were hard to follow since I'm not a finance guy. A couple of google searches would help make up my confusion.
My Life on the Road :: 2019 Rand McNally Large Scale Road Atlas :: A Curve in the Road :: The Road to Wigan Pier :: The Royal Road to Card Magic
★ ★ ☆ ☆ ☆
morgan lazar
This is the weakest book Rickards has written so far. He wastes a lot of time yammering about Bayes. He's an apologist for the CIA and their idiocy. He says the govt will lock down the system when it inevitably falls. Nothing new here but not terrible.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
rebekah bortolin
If you wanna know what is going to happen next, what Trump is going to do next, this book is a must read. This book give you different perspective about what is happening in global markets that you will never learn in college. His books "currency wars", "the new case for gold" is where I started following him. It will definitely change the way how you analyze financial markets.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
kimberly chapman
As with previous books written by Jim Rickards, this book is well written and insightful. Jim takes complex subject matter and conveyes his ideas and thoughts into plane easy to understand english. Well done
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
jaymi egerstaffer
It's rare to find a book that scares the wits out of you. This book, all of which is true (& the author confirmed that for me on twitter ;-)) is a terrific read that will really scare you, it you're paying attention. Interesting forays into history contrast with the present, while laying out a case for another financial collapse based on chaos/complexity theory. (Read James Gleick's book first if unfamiliar.) My only complaint is that the practical tips for surviving the coming collapse are rather sparse & geared towards investment strategy mostly; I'd have liked Mr. Rickards take on being a prepper or ways to join the elite in advance of the collapse. An excellent book though, one which you'll either read straight through or impatiently wait with nervous energy to get back to reading.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
wondersupi
It's rare to find a book that scares the wits out of you. This book, all of which is true (& the author confirmed that for me on twitter ;-)) is a terrific read that will really scare you, it you're paying attention. Interesting forays into history contrast with the present, while laying out a case for another financial collapse based on chaos/complexity theory. (Read James Gleick's book first if unfamiliar.) My only complaint is that the practical tips for surviving the coming collapse are rather sparse & geared towards investment strategy mostly; I'd have liked Mr. Rickards take on being a prepper or ways to join the elite in advance of the collapse. An excellent book though, one which you'll either read straight through or impatiently wait with nervous energy to get back to reading.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
sarah hess
I've read all of Jim's books. This one is good but not his best. The death of money was my favorite followed by currency wars and a new case for gold. Jim is incredibly knowledgeable about the complex world of economics, finance and monetary policy. I always enjoy His books.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
moya vaughan evans
James Rickard's insight and experiences are incredible. I am impressed by the amount of thought that went into laying the foundation of how money fails and how events support or undermine the dollars value. The author provides ample historical details for the reader understand the situation and make their own conclusion. If you like jumping to sound bites or find comfort in simple equilibrium equations to justify your confidence in the dollar then this is not your book. If you want to get a glimpse of the world and its inherent weaknesses I would highly recommend giving this book a read.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
colum
Well written eye-opening book that has to be digested in small portions rather than read an a normal pace. It reveals how the moneyed folk take risks that affect us all without regard to potential instability. They remind me of those who chose to go over Niagara Falls in a barrel believing they would not get hurt due to their cunning barrel design. The discussion of various risk assessment models was most interesting. Those who fail to learn from the past and blindly lead to the next crash should be fired, jailed, and fined and their institutions should be closed with stockholders bearing the loss.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
sherill
Progressives and liberals should read this book. The world elites may be putting a "new world order" together that they really don't like any more that conservatives do! The sections on complexity theory are very good. A big issue (politically) is the issues of tariffs threatened by Mr. Trump and being proposed by the Republicans in Congress (the border adjustment tax.) James makes a principled argument for general tariffs. This issue needs to be discussed fully and not imposed based on tweets alone!!
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
max chiu
Great read so far, 100 years of the damage done by the corruption and stupidity of the "Federal Reserve" which is neither Federal nor has any reserves is clearly and honestly laid out for examination.
The Federal Reserve needs to be shut down.
The Federal Reserve needs to be shut down.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
clairvoyance cleric
This book is informative and gives a lot of backgrounds. I have studied cybernetics, his mathematical proof is for me not so true... Because if you study the dynamics of every system, you need all parameters that are necessary ... In this case, we can't be sure that we get all parameters, if one parameter is missing, every conclusion is wrong. If we compare the today scenery with the past then a reset of our monetary system becomes true. His idea that they will freeze the money might come true.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
stanimir rachev
The author is a financial elite who worked on Wall Street for 30 years and promotes complexity theory for explaining market behavior. His ice 9 hypothesis and war on money prediction are scary and coming true.
★ ★ ★ ☆ ☆
josh vanderwoude
It is an autopsy of the financial disasters that the powerful Bankers, Elites got us into that we had to pay for. It dissects the behavior that caused the collapse and incessant greed of Bankers and Wall Street, incomprehensible greed ! Importantly, it followed the behavior of everyday people in trying to save what money they had while everything was collapsing. That behavior was dissected by the Bankers and the Elite who want a one world banking system, and have since put processes in place to take your money or prevent you from getting your money so they can start a new monetary system. Those are good chapters, however he does ramble repeatedly about better tools(complexity theory) and Bayesian tools over and over again throughout the remainder of the book which gets old....It is mostly a financial techno-babble book that few people will understand; but it does give you insight into the systems that have been set up for the next crash to screw the American People...Some Obama has done recently.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
stephanie dobbins
Rickards explains complexity theory and then uses it to demonstrate why all of the standard economic models used to analyze modern investment and banking opportunities and prospects are seriously mistaken. He also proposes some alternative investment portfolios for those who do not want to be ruined with the collapse of the international monetary system. Intriguing. Disturbing. Insightful. Definitely worth studying.
My only discomfort arose when he began talking about the modern militarized police state that the United States has become. The theme seems to arise out of nowhere. I thought his observations were accurate. But I just didn't understand how it fit with the broader themes of the book.
My only discomfort arose when he began talking about the modern militarized police state that the United States has become. The theme seems to arise out of nowhere. I thought his observations were accurate. But I just didn't understand how it fit with the broader themes of the book.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
kokona
This is arguably Jim Rickard's best book yet. While his formal education is in finance and law, he expands these disciplines with concepts borrowed from physics, supplemented with an excellent intuitive understanding of politics, along with an explanation of how the system is manipulated of the system by what he calls global "elites." Yes, the latter really exist, and share remarkably similar goals, including global inflation to nullify the debt massive mess, further micromanagement of your personal life and economics by a "new world order." (No, this is not a traditional conspiracy theory) .An excellent example of the latter is the widely accepted concept (especially on the left) of "climate change," which all but a few "skeptics" have bought hook, line, and sinker. What is the real purpose to promoting this questionable concept? Naturally, it furthers the interest of statists to control your life and pocketbook while redistributing wealth through "globalization," using a a one world (socialist) government, more regulation and higher taxes.
An important concept he introduces to finance and investing is the concept known in physics as "complexity theory." In short, this is the tendency for complex system the break down and result in unpredictable consequences. And, importantly, the more complex the system, the more vulnerable is is to breakdown and disorder. As an example, Rickards shows how the 2011 Japanese Tsunami resulted in a complex system cascade of events, resulting in rapid and significant strengthening of the yen.
While the arugments in this book argue for a pessimistic view of the future for personal and sovereign financial security, this is not a typical "doom and gloom" book. While their are plenty of these on the market, this book should not be mistaken as merely another one of them. While it provides no simple answers, it does inspire the intelligent investor to master certain concepts and information to improve their odds of surviving in the new system. All intelligent investors should read this book.
An important concept he introduces to finance and investing is the concept known in physics as "complexity theory." In short, this is the tendency for complex system the break down and result in unpredictable consequences. And, importantly, the more complex the system, the more vulnerable is is to breakdown and disorder. As an example, Rickards shows how the 2011 Japanese Tsunami resulted in a complex system cascade of events, resulting in rapid and significant strengthening of the yen.
While the arugments in this book argue for a pessimistic view of the future for personal and sovereign financial security, this is not a typical "doom and gloom" book. While their are plenty of these on the market, this book should not be mistaken as merely another one of them. While it provides no simple answers, it does inspire the intelligent investor to master certain concepts and information to improve their odds of surviving in the new system. All intelligent investors should read this book.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
prameet kumar
This study by a contrarian historian and economist is very understandable and explains many of the seemingly mysterious events in our economic past. It also lays out suggestions for preparing for future problems.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
josh tatum
Jim Rickards explains step by step the arrival of a one world bank, one world money,, and chillingly he also predicts the rise of fascist governments all over the world. It is very interesting that his timeline at the end of the book is eerily similar to the timeline in the apocalyptic book: Christian Exodus. Christian Exodus: Out of Babylon . I only gave four stars because Mr. Rickards advances the notion that his predictions are based on inevitable historical cycles when I am sure he knows everything he predicts has been planned by his globalist associates for a long, long time. At least he gives his readers fair warning.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
kenny
Do you ever wondered why India demonetized.
Is FDR a fascist or democrat.
What is unique about Schumpeter theories pointing to end of capitalism.
US citizens are prohibited from buying physical gold
Read this book for dystopian but realistic vision..
Is FDR a fascist or democrat.
What is unique about Schumpeter theories pointing to end of capitalism.
US citizens are prohibited from buying physical gold
Read this book for dystopian but realistic vision..
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
nick christy
Been following Rickards for some time now. Bought the New Case for Gold book. Learned a bunch I didn't know and I've been following and purchasing gold since the 70s. So, it made sense to buy this book. He isn't just someone who "knows it all". He's been personally involved in a lot of global events and with top people in many countries over the years. He shares his experiences with names. He has a lot of guts with what he has to say. Read this book in 2 days, and I mean all day because it was so fascinating and informative. I was exhausted after 20+ hours of reading it for 2 days. But, it was so worth it, I would do it again. Guess I'll get my chance. Went into a book store yesterday and read chapter one of another of his books called The Death of Money. I read about how a huge amount of stock "puts" on American Airlines and United Airlines were sold during the 4 days prior to 9/11. It was obvious that someone knew what was about to happen and would profit when the airlines stock plummeted one day after 9/11, which it did 40% and 43%. This is explained in detail in just chapter one. Came home and ordered it thru the store for a whole bunch less. Can't wait to get it.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
vibha
Wealth is by far a zero-sum game. Those accumulating wealth do so at the expense of those losing it. For nearly three decades the elites, meaning the very wealthy who control US industry and those who profit from the financial system, have moved towards total control of the country. They have mangled the economy by their greed. They are the ones responsible for everything made in China. It wasn't China's idea, it was a way to get around labor unions in America. If their costs were too high they would circumvent the unions, and they did. Ronald Reagan gave them the green light by firing the air traffic controllers in 1981 who went on strike for better pay and working conditions. US corporations immediately got the green light to set up shop in China and import what had been made at much greater expense at home. Today, Donald Trump decries China's unfair trade deals, but they were put in place by his Republican supporters. One of the wealthiest Chinese, Jack Ma, has been posted in a youtube video talking to an American audience. Jack Ma is a multi billionaire who is founder of Alibaba, China's the store. He explains that America came to China begging access to their labor markets. And China agreed, provided each corporation have a Chinese partner owning 51% and that the technology imported to do the work was shared with China.
You now understand the Great Economic Miracle that took place over the past decades. The question is: how did the American population pay for those imported goods after they'd lost their jobs making them? In a bit of razzle dazzle economic the US floated debt and the Chinese bought it. They had to support their purchasing country. Decades later Trump screeches about unfair trade. But it was the American's idea. Now we're in so deep we have 21 trillion in debt with no possible way of ever repaying it.
China holds the largest portion of the debt. Their elites, those lucky enough to partner with the Americans, are hustling dollars out of China as fast as possible, and getting rid of them by buying expensive real estate in London, Paris, Toronto, Vancouver, Honolulu, and businesses all over America, fishing industries in Samoa, utility companies all over Europe, etc. etc. It's called capital flight. The dollar is becoming worthless due to the American bankers' churning it in derivatives trading and scams such as sub-prime and derivatives, and the financiers' famous internet bubble, student loans and various scams to financially decimate the middle class and enslave Americans to their monthly payments. The federal reserve has been their vehicle, printing money when there wasn't enough to grease the wheels.
James Rickards has written extensively about how the next in a series of financial crisis is coming, and this time the Fed can no longer print its way out of it. To do so would make them look like Zimbabwe, or the Wiemar German banks in the 1920s. He's right on the dime when he says that banks will have no other option than to freeze your deposits so they don't vanish.
The reason I didn't give him five stars is that he partnered with Agoura Financial to keep going. This was a big mistake as it added him to the scammy looking internet pages that try to grab you and get a few buck in shipping for his book. The shameful thing is that these books are painfully researched and artfully written. He simply blew it when he made them available through a Palm Beach-type newsletter.
You now understand the Great Economic Miracle that took place over the past decades. The question is: how did the American population pay for those imported goods after they'd lost their jobs making them? In a bit of razzle dazzle economic the US floated debt and the Chinese bought it. They had to support their purchasing country. Decades later Trump screeches about unfair trade. But it was the American's idea. Now we're in so deep we have 21 trillion in debt with no possible way of ever repaying it.
China holds the largest portion of the debt. Their elites, those lucky enough to partner with the Americans, are hustling dollars out of China as fast as possible, and getting rid of them by buying expensive real estate in London, Paris, Toronto, Vancouver, Honolulu, and businesses all over America, fishing industries in Samoa, utility companies all over Europe, etc. etc. It's called capital flight. The dollar is becoming worthless due to the American bankers' churning it in derivatives trading and scams such as sub-prime and derivatives, and the financiers' famous internet bubble, student loans and various scams to financially decimate the middle class and enslave Americans to their monthly payments. The federal reserve has been their vehicle, printing money when there wasn't enough to grease the wheels.
James Rickards has written extensively about how the next in a series of financial crisis is coming, and this time the Fed can no longer print its way out of it. To do so would make them look like Zimbabwe, or the Wiemar German banks in the 1920s. He's right on the dime when he says that banks will have no other option than to freeze your deposits so they don't vanish.
The reason I didn't give him five stars is that he partnered with Agoura Financial to keep going. This was a big mistake as it added him to the scammy looking internet pages that try to grab you and get a few buck in shipping for his book. The shameful thing is that these books are painfully researched and artfully written. He simply blew it when he made them available through a Palm Beach-type newsletter.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
bryarly
Excellent, unusual analysis by someone who is a distinguished member of the elite himself. Daring by looking at the system from an unexpected angle. Complexity explained in a clear way. Should be read by every investor, banker or politician.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
rindy girl
I've read several of; Jim"s books. This one is my favorite. It also worries me the most. He is well reasoned. His thoughts are articulated tremendously. His past, affords insights, few possess ☺
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
david levin
One of the most in depth, knowledgeable, and incredibly insightful books ever written (I have to believe) about the state of the world's economies. Where we are heading, why, and how it relates historically make a compelling case for his view of the near future. As time moves on we will see how accurate he is or how many adjustments can be made to avert the "inevitable". No one who cares about macroeconomics should miss this book. You will not find a better one.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
ruth gorme
Interesting roadmap of what may lie ahead. Much of it is quite plausible. I hope it's too pessimistic! Rickards has an interesting and credible background. These are possibilities to think about, but I don't quite share his vision of crisis soon. These trends can take many years to play out.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
kayleigh
We live in a time when the deck is stacked against Joe Public and I have felt that the house of cards is about to come tumbling down. I have been saying for years that the next financial disruption will make 2008 look like a Sunday school picnic. With his extraordinary insider experience and his desire to understand what happened in 1998 and then in 2008, Rickards opens the door to us as to how catastrophic events will cause a massive, unpredictable breakdown in our financial world. He also tells us what consequences he sees and how we can best protect ourselves. Priceless advice.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
s espo6
I appreciate the lessons of history and the effects of political decisions on our every day life. Rickards writes in a fluid manner and keeps the journey fast-paced, though his conclusions are somewhat depressing. So, who is right? Free marketers, or some hidden cabal, or regulators? I do not pretend to understand the intricacies as much as someone who has devoted his life to it, but I enjoy the discourse. And I do not understand how a free market can live in harmony with mercantilism... arguably a stone's throw from fascism. Because of automation, even a heavy industrial site is a matter of pushing buttons corresponding to a computer program... it creates opportunity, but not necessarily jobs. Sign me up as a free marketer. Do read this book... twice, as i surely will.
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
erma
Some years ago, I clicked on an on-line infomercial by J. Rickards. After watching some of the presentation, I researched Mr Rickards and was just a bit perturbed by what I found. It seems that his thrust is along the line of gold bugs and silver stashers. So, when a friend recommended this book, I dutifully read the Kindle sample which barely took me into chapter 1 - the sample was mostly prefactory or introductory. I bought the book, but returned it because it's like Rickards' other books and that video I watched years ago. When I bought the book, I did not realize that it was another of Rickards' doom and gloom stories. Please, before buying this book, see ALL of the one, two, and three-star reviews in Kindle Shop. These few reviewers are telling you something. Also, try googling the author and add "scam," or any other such word to by-pass the Search chaff and get to the heart of whether you really want to spend your time and money in ut.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
sheila sidelinger
One part history, one part science, one part psychology, one part fiction, one part nonfiction, one part economics, one part horridly depressing, one part angering, no part uplifting! A masterfully written, provocative book.
★ ★ ★ ☆ ☆
buliga
I do not understand Mr Rickards objections to "bail-ins" of insolvent banks.
Who is supposed to fix insolvent banks ? The taxpayers ? Again ?
Surely, the shareholders, depositors and bond holders must suffer the consequences of their lack of judgement, in the case of ALL shareholders lose everything, and in the case of LARGE depositors and ANY bond holders suffer the conversation of part of their debt asset into new equity in the bank, eliminating the need for innocent taxpayers to bail out rich people, while the bank is temporarily placed in a "nationalized" state during such restructuring. The incompetence of shareholders and the banks' board and management is not the responsibility of innocent taxpayers and nor is the consequences of negligent bank selection by depositors and bond holders.
Other than that, the book is interesting.
Who is supposed to fix insolvent banks ? The taxpayers ? Again ?
Surely, the shareholders, depositors and bond holders must suffer the consequences of their lack of judgement, in the case of ALL shareholders lose everything, and in the case of LARGE depositors and ANY bond holders suffer the conversation of part of their debt asset into new equity in the bank, eliminating the need for innocent taxpayers to bail out rich people, while the bank is temporarily placed in a "nationalized" state during such restructuring. The incompetence of shareholders and the banks' board and management is not the responsibility of innocent taxpayers and nor is the consequences of negligent bank selection by depositors and bond holders.
Other than that, the book is interesting.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
johanna kristensen
I have been a fan of all of Rickards' books but Road to Ruin is his best yet. The blend of history, personalities and deep insight into the thinking of the self proclaimed elites is a fascinating and timely read. Cannot recommend more highly!
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
bagas
The Road to Ruin is an excellent read and like James Rickards' other book, his analysis is backed up by a lot of facts and data. In these days, where it feels like there is a lot of uncertainty, this book helps explain the grave geopolitical and economic issues we are all facing. Well worth reading!
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
garett
THE AUTHOR IS THE MOST KNOWLEDGEABLE, EXPERIENCED IN PRIVATE AND PUBLIC ECONOMIC MATTERS, AND INCISIVE ON THE WORKINGS OF THE STOCK MARKET AND ON CAPITALISTIC CYCLES. IT IS AN EYE OPENER AND NOT AN EASY BOOK TO READ. HE EXPENDS A LOT OF PAGES AND TIME TO EXPLAIN IS METHODOLOGY TO SUPPORT HIS OPINIONS AND HE DOES, FINALLY, NEAR THE END MAKES RECOMMENDATIONS ON AN INVESTMENT PLAN INTENDED TO PROTECT INVESTORS DURING VERY CRITICAL TIMES--THIS NEXT ONE BEING PREDICTED TO BE MUCH MORE SUDDEN AND DISASTROUS THAN ANY PRECEDING ONES.
★ ★ ☆ ☆ ☆
allison schott
I have read a number of Mr Rickards’ books, such as The Case for Gold and Currency Wars, and while I have quibbles about some of his notions, I was looking forward to his latest offering. As usual, the book started off in rattling good fashion; we are introduced to the nifty idea of the “ice-nine” lockup of financial activity and liquidity that policymakers might enact to deal with crises (he takes the idea from Kurt Vonnegut’s Cat’s Cradle). There is plenty of recent evidence that such moves are already in evidence: the recent move by the government of India to remove high-value bank notes is more about attempts to enforce monetary policy than countering corruption; the Cypriot government’s haircuts to bank depositors and Greek restrictions on cash withdrawals were signs of what can happen. Governments have in the past seized private holdings of gold (Roosevelt in the 1930s); exchanges can be closed down. All these things can, in extremis, happen again. These warnings are well worth making.
Rickards is at his best in my view in setting out his ideas around complexity theory, the workings of Bayesian logic and argument that humans are not as rational in markets as other models of human activity say they are. He is also, however, careful not to sneer at people he disagrees with, although he does bang on a bit about “elites” and there are times when, despite his protestations, the book reads a bit like a conspiracy theory tract.
The weakest section of the book, may I suggest, when he tries to make the case for protectionism. Such mercantilism is currently more in vogue with the likes of Donald J Trump now in the White House.
Rickards starts by rightly praising the brilliant insight of David Ricardo, of 200-plus years ago, about comparative advantage; however, such praise is quickly jettisoned, as Rickards then proceeds to say that Ricardo’s idea only applies when capital and labour are immobile and says that in today’s very different world, with its free movement of capital, instant communications and currency manipulations, Ricardo’s ideas are a dead duck. Free trade, and indeed the market, is a “mirage”. Hence, he says, we need tariffs to protect the jobs of American workers (and maybe some in other countries, if they are so lucky) and that any rises in the cost of living can be offset with tax cuts elsewhere (this seems a tad naïve; can you remember governments been quick to offset tax rises with other cuts?)
The problem here is that Rickards doesn’t deal with a number of points. There is the fact that global free trade has meant a global extension of the division of labour and its associated benefits; protectionism is all too often a prelude to, or coincident with, rising nationalism and hostility to others; tariffs are subject to lobbying and the gamesmanship of corporate interests (which is curious, because Rickards talks about such cronyism elsewhere in the book), and not least, that protectionism can breed complacent home industries that are vulnerable to a shift in consumer sentiment. Rickards dismisses the US tariff hike of the 1930s as not, in his view, being particularly outrageous and dismisses the idea that it was responsible for turning the Wall Street Crash into a global slump. What he doesn’t address, however, is that such a tariff move prompted a tit-for-tat response in other countries, with nations pushing up barriers and retreating into autarky. He needs to address this sort of issue, but he doesn’t. (As an aside, according to the San Francisco Federal Reserve, goods and services from China in 2010 accounted for only 2.7 per cent of personal consumption expenditures, although of course Chinese imports were keenly felt by certain US exporters. Even so, a 2.7 per cent figure hardly translates into reasons for panic.)
He asserts that the UK went into a sort of decline for around 70 years from the mid-1840s to 1914 in part because of free trade, which he sees as a luxury in which the UK indulged, contrasting with all that hard-edged mercantilism of the 18th century (which, lest it be forgotten also involved kidnapping Africans for slavery). Once the UK got fat, it relaxed and lifted tariffs on commodities and goods. This really won’t wash. 70-plus years of prosperity and growth is one heck of an achievement and even if the UK did lose some of its relative prominence to the US and others by the end of the 19th Century, so what? If you think that trade is a positive-sum game, not a Hobbesian war of all against all, then the prosperity of an American or German should not, at face value, be a threat. But underlying Rickards’ analysis is the idea that trade isn’t such a benign process. He even uses the analogy of the Monopoly board game as an example of what a market is in theory, but in a free market, there is no set “board” with a fixed set of players throwing dice. Such a game is zero-sum – it takes little account of wealth creation.
There are some other problems. When Rickards refers to the heyday of the Bretton Woods era (1944-1970), he needs to dwell more on why this supposedly splendid system fell apart as it did. If it was so good, how come did it collapse? The “neo-liberal” counter-revolution led by the Chicago School (Friedman, others) rose as it did because the prevailing Bretton Woods/Keynesian paradigm broke down in the stagflation and labour unrest of the 1970s, which is a decade that doesn’t get much attention from Rickards. A problem, surely, is that the rise of Big Government programmes in the US (LBJ’s Great Society reforms, plus the Vietnam War bills), as well as the relative rise in economic prowess of Japan and West Germany, challenged US predominance and the anchor role of the dollar, and eventually, led to the break in the gold/dollar link. In the UK, the country had been buoyed on the general post-war recovery but hadn’t made sufficient changes to its industrial practices; hidebound management and militant trade unionism took its toll. It is worth noting that when the oil shock hit and cheaper, low-consuming Japanese cars entered the US market, the bloated US automakers, used to a cushy deal in a home market, were vulnerable.
Another point that doesn’t get much attention here is savings rates. Since the pro-capitalist reforms of the late 70s, savings rates in China have been high, and its earnings from exports meant China had huge pools of savings to be put to work. In the West, meanwhile, savings rates fell. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has argued that rising public spending on Social Security and other benefits have crowded out forms of private savings and eroded long-term capital formation in the US, which is a reason for decelerating productivity growth and living standards. This “crowding out” point seems to be a neglected area of concern.
If I have dwelled at length at what I consider the failures of this book rather than its strengths, this is in part borne out of my disappointment. I hadn’t expected a person who has been so eloquent in defence of hard money and so concerned about the foolishness of contemporary policymakers to fall for mercantilism.
Rickards is at his best in my view in setting out his ideas around complexity theory, the workings of Bayesian logic and argument that humans are not as rational in markets as other models of human activity say they are. He is also, however, careful not to sneer at people he disagrees with, although he does bang on a bit about “elites” and there are times when, despite his protestations, the book reads a bit like a conspiracy theory tract.
The weakest section of the book, may I suggest, when he tries to make the case for protectionism. Such mercantilism is currently more in vogue with the likes of Donald J Trump now in the White House.
Rickards starts by rightly praising the brilliant insight of David Ricardo, of 200-plus years ago, about comparative advantage; however, such praise is quickly jettisoned, as Rickards then proceeds to say that Ricardo’s idea only applies when capital and labour are immobile and says that in today’s very different world, with its free movement of capital, instant communications and currency manipulations, Ricardo’s ideas are a dead duck. Free trade, and indeed the market, is a “mirage”. Hence, he says, we need tariffs to protect the jobs of American workers (and maybe some in other countries, if they are so lucky) and that any rises in the cost of living can be offset with tax cuts elsewhere (this seems a tad naïve; can you remember governments been quick to offset tax rises with other cuts?)
The problem here is that Rickards doesn’t deal with a number of points. There is the fact that global free trade has meant a global extension of the division of labour and its associated benefits; protectionism is all too often a prelude to, or coincident with, rising nationalism and hostility to others; tariffs are subject to lobbying and the gamesmanship of corporate interests (which is curious, because Rickards talks about such cronyism elsewhere in the book), and not least, that protectionism can breed complacent home industries that are vulnerable to a shift in consumer sentiment. Rickards dismisses the US tariff hike of the 1930s as not, in his view, being particularly outrageous and dismisses the idea that it was responsible for turning the Wall Street Crash into a global slump. What he doesn’t address, however, is that such a tariff move prompted a tit-for-tat response in other countries, with nations pushing up barriers and retreating into autarky. He needs to address this sort of issue, but he doesn’t. (As an aside, according to the San Francisco Federal Reserve, goods and services from China in 2010 accounted for only 2.7 per cent of personal consumption expenditures, although of course Chinese imports were keenly felt by certain US exporters. Even so, a 2.7 per cent figure hardly translates into reasons for panic.)
He asserts that the UK went into a sort of decline for around 70 years from the mid-1840s to 1914 in part because of free trade, which he sees as a luxury in which the UK indulged, contrasting with all that hard-edged mercantilism of the 18th century (which, lest it be forgotten also involved kidnapping Africans for slavery). Once the UK got fat, it relaxed and lifted tariffs on commodities and goods. This really won’t wash. 70-plus years of prosperity and growth is one heck of an achievement and even if the UK did lose some of its relative prominence to the US and others by the end of the 19th Century, so what? If you think that trade is a positive-sum game, not a Hobbesian war of all against all, then the prosperity of an American or German should not, at face value, be a threat. But underlying Rickards’ analysis is the idea that trade isn’t such a benign process. He even uses the analogy of the Monopoly board game as an example of what a market is in theory, but in a free market, there is no set “board” with a fixed set of players throwing dice. Such a game is zero-sum – it takes little account of wealth creation.
There are some other problems. When Rickards refers to the heyday of the Bretton Woods era (1944-1970), he needs to dwell more on why this supposedly splendid system fell apart as it did. If it was so good, how come did it collapse? The “neo-liberal” counter-revolution led by the Chicago School (Friedman, others) rose as it did because the prevailing Bretton Woods/Keynesian paradigm broke down in the stagflation and labour unrest of the 1970s, which is a decade that doesn’t get much attention from Rickards. A problem, surely, is that the rise of Big Government programmes in the US (LBJ’s Great Society reforms, plus the Vietnam War bills), as well as the relative rise in economic prowess of Japan and West Germany, challenged US predominance and the anchor role of the dollar, and eventually, led to the break in the gold/dollar link. In the UK, the country had been buoyed on the general post-war recovery but hadn’t made sufficient changes to its industrial practices; hidebound management and militant trade unionism took its toll. It is worth noting that when the oil shock hit and cheaper, low-consuming Japanese cars entered the US market, the bloated US automakers, used to a cushy deal in a home market, were vulnerable.
Another point that doesn’t get much attention here is savings rates. Since the pro-capitalist reforms of the late 70s, savings rates in China have been high, and its earnings from exports meant China had huge pools of savings to be put to work. In the West, meanwhile, savings rates fell. Former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan has argued that rising public spending on Social Security and other benefits have crowded out forms of private savings and eroded long-term capital formation in the US, which is a reason for decelerating productivity growth and living standards. This “crowding out” point seems to be a neglected area of concern.
If I have dwelled at length at what I consider the failures of this book rather than its strengths, this is in part borne out of my disappointment. I hadn’t expected a person who has been so eloquent in defence of hard money and so concerned about the foolishness of contemporary policymakers to fall for mercantilism.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
jessamyn
Wow! Another must-read from James Rickards. I'm a HUGE fan of his work and this did not disappoint. It is an informative, thought-provoking book that warns readers of the impending financial crisis. I didn't think a book could be better than Currency Wars and I am so happy to be proven wrong.
Add this book to your cart immediately, you will not be disappointed!
Add this book to your cart immediately, you will not be disappointed!
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
markesha
I recently got into endurance sports, including triathlons. This book was a major revelation for me, I transformed my running style after reading it and haven't looked back.
This is a must read book for anyone doing a lot of running
This is a must read book for anyone doing a lot of running
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
kinza ahmed
An insider tells what happened to LTCM, Lehman, Bear Stearns, 2008 meltdown, in meetings of the Fed and Elites, and what the agenda is.
Once in a while you read a snippet of what's happening behind the scenes but its hard to see how everything fits together. James Rickards makes it easy to to put the news tidbits into perspective. I can add something not in the book about GE.
I had a savings account with GE and earned above market interest due to it not being insured. I knew that the savings accounts were really a low interest loan to their capital division to fund bankruptcies (Montgomery Ward for example) and buy up insolvent businesses (insurance companies that GE would then offer me a good discount for my car insurance). I was really benefiting. Then I got a prospectus that said that the savings accounts were part of rolling over the corp debt of $380 billion. That was more than GE was worth for all their businesses. That's when I got out. Within 2 years Warren Buffet had to lend them billions in the 2008 meltdown because as the book says, GE couldn't roll the bonds over. Since then GE has been selling divisions and trying to reduce debt.
US corporations sell 10 year bonds. They pay interest for 10 years and then sell replacement bonds to pay off the previous set. GM did this from its inception until they went bankrupt. Virtually all corporations are in this boat and that's why they all ultimately fail. Stocks are entertainment that hides this from even the professionals. You would think they would know better but its just a sales commission to them. As the book says, you are the sucker who doesn't understand the manipulation of the system.
Once in a while you read a snippet of what's happening behind the scenes but its hard to see how everything fits together. James Rickards makes it easy to to put the news tidbits into perspective. I can add something not in the book about GE.
I had a savings account with GE and earned above market interest due to it not being insured. I knew that the savings accounts were really a low interest loan to their capital division to fund bankruptcies (Montgomery Ward for example) and buy up insolvent businesses (insurance companies that GE would then offer me a good discount for my car insurance). I was really benefiting. Then I got a prospectus that said that the savings accounts were part of rolling over the corp debt of $380 billion. That was more than GE was worth for all their businesses. That's when I got out. Within 2 years Warren Buffet had to lend them billions in the 2008 meltdown because as the book says, GE couldn't roll the bonds over. Since then GE has been selling divisions and trying to reduce debt.
US corporations sell 10 year bonds. They pay interest for 10 years and then sell replacement bonds to pay off the previous set. GM did this from its inception until they went bankrupt. Virtually all corporations are in this boat and that's why they all ultimately fail. Stocks are entertainment that hides this from even the professionals. You would think they would know better but its just a sales commission to them. As the book says, you are the sucker who doesn't understand the manipulation of the system.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
ashlee jade x1f33f
"The Road to Ruin" is fascinating, but quite incomplete, in that Jim tells us how we got here, a few things we should do to prepare for the end of the age (none of which will really do any good), and a tiny bit of what to expect when things blow up. Unfortunately, he never goes into any detail about just how bad things will get, to say nothing of how many people will die. Perhaps that’s because he doesn’t want to go there and terrify his readers more than they already are. Or he doesn’t want to remove all hope for a better tomorrow. Or maybe he’s leaving that for book four (or all the science fiction tales that have been written about it).
Still, the book is much better written and organized than David Stockman’s “Trumped” (which I have also reviewed). Even better, he knows many of the elites, and he’s been directly involved in many of the crises he writes about. While he has included a lot of the material in assorted essays published in his newsletter “Strategic Intelligence,” the book itself doesn’t come across as a collection of essays. Rather, it is a set of arguments, different perspectives on the same process, wound together into one conclusion. He also doesn’t go into the excruciating detail that Stockman does, but leaves the details for the section of notes at the end of the book, along with a substantial number of references. And he has an index. Also, he doesn’t end the book abruptly by telling the Israelis what to do. Nor does he play the blame game to the extent that Stockman does. He lays out what happened, the lessons to be learned, and the evidence that those who should have learned them refused to do so—and what happened then.
What can I say? I like the man and his calm demeanor. I’ve already taken such steps as I can to position what small nest egg I have according to his suggested portfolio—and I strongly advise everyone else who reads this book to do likewise before it’s too late. I would also suggest that those who can do so make every effort to preserve their libraries of hardbound books against the possibility of losing electrical power. If possible, we should also make every effort to gather in small villages which are as nearly self-sufficient as possible—much as the Amish have over the centuries. Technology is great, but it depends too much on electrical power, which may be very difficult to come by in any quantity should civilization truly collapse.
It should be noted that this book was completed prior to the 2016 election. How Mr. Trump will manage the coming collapse is likely to be significantly different than how Mrs. Clinton would have, but in the end the forces of history and human nature are too strong for any one person—or even any one team—to do more than shape the end results slightly. The fact remains that humankind will be significantly reduced in numbers over the next few decades, just as happened 1500 years ago, and 1500 years before that. We may hope the collapse and coming 500-year dark age won’t be as destructive as previous collapses have been—but I fear that it will be far worse, because there are more people living now than have ever lived before. The more people, the greater the complexity of the systems created by them, and the greater the amplification of the underlying fear and greed that drive everyone, whether anyone wishes to admit it or not.
The amazing thing is that such a species as we are should have developed language and civilization at all, let alone learned as much as we have about the nature of Reality (even though nearly all of what we think we know is wrong—or at best, incomplete). At least, whatever happens to us and our world, we have existed for a time and a season, we have learned a great deal about Reality and our places in it, and we will not be forgotten by that Reality.
(Full Disclosure: I have been a lifetime subscriber to Jim Rickard's "Strategic Intelligence" since its inception in November 2014.)
Still, the book is much better written and organized than David Stockman’s “Trumped” (which I have also reviewed). Even better, he knows many of the elites, and he’s been directly involved in many of the crises he writes about. While he has included a lot of the material in assorted essays published in his newsletter “Strategic Intelligence,” the book itself doesn’t come across as a collection of essays. Rather, it is a set of arguments, different perspectives on the same process, wound together into one conclusion. He also doesn’t go into the excruciating detail that Stockman does, but leaves the details for the section of notes at the end of the book, along with a substantial number of references. And he has an index. Also, he doesn’t end the book abruptly by telling the Israelis what to do. Nor does he play the blame game to the extent that Stockman does. He lays out what happened, the lessons to be learned, and the evidence that those who should have learned them refused to do so—and what happened then.
What can I say? I like the man and his calm demeanor. I’ve already taken such steps as I can to position what small nest egg I have according to his suggested portfolio—and I strongly advise everyone else who reads this book to do likewise before it’s too late. I would also suggest that those who can do so make every effort to preserve their libraries of hardbound books against the possibility of losing electrical power. If possible, we should also make every effort to gather in small villages which are as nearly self-sufficient as possible—much as the Amish have over the centuries. Technology is great, but it depends too much on electrical power, which may be very difficult to come by in any quantity should civilization truly collapse.
It should be noted that this book was completed prior to the 2016 election. How Mr. Trump will manage the coming collapse is likely to be significantly different than how Mrs. Clinton would have, but in the end the forces of history and human nature are too strong for any one person—or even any one team—to do more than shape the end results slightly. The fact remains that humankind will be significantly reduced in numbers over the next few decades, just as happened 1500 years ago, and 1500 years before that. We may hope the collapse and coming 500-year dark age won’t be as destructive as previous collapses have been—but I fear that it will be far worse, because there are more people living now than have ever lived before. The more people, the greater the complexity of the systems created by them, and the greater the amplification of the underlying fear and greed that drive everyone, whether anyone wishes to admit it or not.
The amazing thing is that such a species as we are should have developed language and civilization at all, let alone learned as much as we have about the nature of Reality (even though nearly all of what we think we know is wrong—or at best, incomplete). At least, whatever happens to us and our world, we have existed for a time and a season, we have learned a great deal about Reality and our places in it, and we will not be forgotten by that Reality.
(Full Disclosure: I have been a lifetime subscriber to Jim Rickard's "Strategic Intelligence" since its inception in November 2014.)
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
ellen stansell phd ryt
I am not quite done with the audio version, however I felt compelled to write a brief review. For history and applicable inforation, I give him 5+ stars! For pathway to protection, I give him 4 stars. Even though I have not yet reached to conclusion, I feel that more could be said about a plan for asset preservation along the way.
Interestingly, his tariffs discussion reads like a Trump playbook.
Interestingly, his tariffs discussion reads like a Trump playbook.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
holly fisher
Every once in a while, you come across a book and, midway through, you think to yourself, "I'm not going to be the same person afterwards". This is one of those books. This is a masterpiece in every sense in the word. Rickards breaks down complicated subject matter, ranging from complexity theory to seismology to technically written global elite publications clearly and concisely, and the reader is all the more better for it. One can't help but marvel at how voluminously researched this book is; one moment Rickards is delving into early 20th century American financial crises, next Bayesian statistics, then the history of socialism and fascism.
Rickards is well-connected socially and has brushed shoulders with members of the global elite (as well as having briefed powerful government officials) and it's a delight to peek as he lifts the curtain and relays his conversations with these people.
The US (better yet Western Europe) is on a nightmarish financial trajectory, and our end destination: a world in which ATM dispersals are limited to only a few hundred dollars a day, rioting, looting, black markets, price controls, and rolling blackouts is inescapable. There's simply no getting around it. Rickards' conclusions are tough to swallow, but his claims stand on very firm scientific ground. I cannot recommend this book any more strongly.
Rickards is well-connected socially and has brushed shoulders with members of the global elite (as well as having briefed powerful government officials) and it's a delight to peek as he lifts the curtain and relays his conversations with these people.
The US (better yet Western Europe) is on a nightmarish financial trajectory, and our end destination: a world in which ATM dispersals are limited to only a few hundred dollars a day, rioting, looting, black markets, price controls, and rolling blackouts is inescapable. There's simply no getting around it. Rickards' conclusions are tough to swallow, but his claims stand on very firm scientific ground. I cannot recommend this book any more strongly.
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
andrew bishop
A whole chapter on tax law will put you asleep. An even bigger chapter on LTCM, which you can find elsewhere, is almost as bad. The free preview that the store gives you for the Kindle is a trap: much more interesting than the rest of the book.
★ ★ ★ ☆ ☆
gregg martinson
If you read the introduction to the book on the the store page you will learn almost as much as you will from reading all 301 regular pages. In case you didn't read it, here it is again: "A drumbeat is sounding among the global elites. The signs of a worldwide financial meltdown are unmistakable. This time, the elites have an audacious plan to protect themselves from the fallout: hoarding cash now and locking down the global financial system when a crisis hits."
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
sahra
A very worthy read and a wake up call. Jim Rickards has deep Wall Street experience and contacts around the world in all levels of finance. He puts these to use in building a very solid argument for the reader to take the initiative to build a very diverse portfolio to survive the next financial calamity, which will likely be an international event - even deeper than the collapse of 2008.
If you like reading Michael Lewis, and his books on Wall Street, then you will do well on taking a serious look at the real condition of the international financial markets house of cards. With the current new administration caving into the pressure of Wall Street lobbyists and their money, what few restraints on the wild bunch of bankers are being removed, bit by bit. It gives us reason to believe that a future global collapse is imminent.
More than just another doom and gloom shock book though, what I enjoyed the most about the book is the deep and comprehensible retelling of the development of the modern American and world financial markets as Rickards opens up the closets in this house of cards and shows of where some of the skeletons are hiding. If you have a pension, an IRA, or a nest egg that you care about, then you simply need to read this book.
If you like reading Michael Lewis, and his books on Wall Street, then you will do well on taking a serious look at the real condition of the international financial markets house of cards. With the current new administration caving into the pressure of Wall Street lobbyists and their money, what few restraints on the wild bunch of bankers are being removed, bit by bit. It gives us reason to believe that a future global collapse is imminent.
More than just another doom and gloom shock book though, what I enjoyed the most about the book is the deep and comprehensible retelling of the development of the modern American and world financial markets as Rickards opens up the closets in this house of cards and shows of where some of the skeletons are hiding. If you have a pension, an IRA, or a nest egg that you care about, then you simply need to read this book.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
alison presslak
I borrowed this book from my local library (sorry the store), hence the non "verified purchaser" status of my review.
James Rickards makes a very compelling argument that the coming global financial crisis, which will be far worse than that of 2008, is virtually unavoidable. It states on the back flap of the book cover: "The most potent form of protection is to arm yourself with knowledge." Reading this book will be a great aid in obtaining valuable knowledge that will be beneficial to you in navigating through these difficult financial times. It will also do what all great books accomplish; it will cause you to THINK.
Great book ... highly recommended!
James Rickards makes a very compelling argument that the coming global financial crisis, which will be far worse than that of 2008, is virtually unavoidable. It states on the back flap of the book cover: "The most potent form of protection is to arm yourself with knowledge." Reading this book will be a great aid in obtaining valuable knowledge that will be beneficial to you in navigating through these difficult financial times. It will also do what all great books accomplish; it will cause you to THINK.
Great book ... highly recommended!
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
kimberly allgaeuer
An interesting read. In the end the advice seems fine, if not all that new. The assessment of the current critical state of things and the nefarious influences all seem real enough. He does include a timeline that is subject to disruption.
In the end, when something shiny (gold) is the best bet for 5000 years, you know somethings wrong.
In the end, when something shiny (gold) is the best bet for 5000 years, you know somethings wrong.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
gayathri athreya
Finance is an esoteric and jargon-filled industry but Rickards does a good job describing it in clear language the average reader can understand.
His main point is that international finance is in a more dangerous position now than it was in 2008. At that time about 500 trillion dollars in derivatives collapsed and caused the Great Recession, which he better names the Panic of 2008. Now the value of global derivatives is one quadrillion dollars (a billion trillion) and ten times global GDP.
He says transnational institutions like G20, IMF, and BIS (Bank of International Settlements), which really run the world, have done nothing to prevent a new collapse but have encouraged more global debt. They plan to use the next financial crisis to create a world currency (like SDRs), a world government (like a more powerful G20), and thus one world order. They are using all the hysteria about climate change to push the idea of uniform world law. They have already started a war on cash so that all money is digital which they can then control.
He describes the global financial market as being so complex that no one really understands how it works. It is unpredictable and any event could create a financial panic, as did the subprime implosion in 2008. He believes corporate debt, including all the derivatives, is the most likely catalyst for the next collapse. Only this time the panic will be greater as banks are more leveraged than in 2008. But the exact timing is unpredictable. Nevertheless, he provides a hypothetical scenario of it happening in 2018.
He blames both political parties for helping to create this situation. The main thing was when the Clinton administration repealed Glass-Steagall in 1999, which allowed banks to create derivatives from their subprime loans. The Bush administration then relaxed the regulation of derivatives further, based on its free market philosophy. This combination of derivatives based on toxic loans caused the crash of 2008. He says bankers control Washington which is why little has been done to change the system.
The main plan of financial elites is to expand globalization, which basically started in 1989, especially the globalization of finance based on free trade. The result has been slow economic growth, increasing income inequality, and thus increasing political polarization for Americans. Real median income in America peaked in 1999 and has decreased 9 percent since. Meanwhile, the Washington bureaucrats who support globalization, free trade, and increasing government power have seen a 25 percent increase. The richest counties now are those surrounding Washington DC.
He cites Schumpeter as predicting that capitalist countries like America will eventually become socialist, meaning giant welfare states. We already saw this move accelerated under Obama, which is why he was so beloved by American elites such as Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, academia, and most importantly the media.
He says all that democracy means is that it gives the elites an arena to compete for power. The last election saw the American establishment lose the 2016 election and it has been using all of its resources, such as the media, to reverse the results of the election. The current nonstop investigations of Trump are part of this syndrome.
Rickards' solutions to prevent a new collapse are smaller banks, fewer derivatives, less debt, and sound money in the form of fixed exchange rates based on gold. He doesn't disclose any political preference but seems to be a libertarian. There is much more to this book but it would take too long to describe.
His main point is that international finance is in a more dangerous position now than it was in 2008. At that time about 500 trillion dollars in derivatives collapsed and caused the Great Recession, which he better names the Panic of 2008. Now the value of global derivatives is one quadrillion dollars (a billion trillion) and ten times global GDP.
He says transnational institutions like G20, IMF, and BIS (Bank of International Settlements), which really run the world, have done nothing to prevent a new collapse but have encouraged more global debt. They plan to use the next financial crisis to create a world currency (like SDRs), a world government (like a more powerful G20), and thus one world order. They are using all the hysteria about climate change to push the idea of uniform world law. They have already started a war on cash so that all money is digital which they can then control.
He describes the global financial market as being so complex that no one really understands how it works. It is unpredictable and any event could create a financial panic, as did the subprime implosion in 2008. He believes corporate debt, including all the derivatives, is the most likely catalyst for the next collapse. Only this time the panic will be greater as banks are more leveraged than in 2008. But the exact timing is unpredictable. Nevertheless, he provides a hypothetical scenario of it happening in 2018.
He blames both political parties for helping to create this situation. The main thing was when the Clinton administration repealed Glass-Steagall in 1999, which allowed banks to create derivatives from their subprime loans. The Bush administration then relaxed the regulation of derivatives further, based on its free market philosophy. This combination of derivatives based on toxic loans caused the crash of 2008. He says bankers control Washington which is why little has been done to change the system.
The main plan of financial elites is to expand globalization, which basically started in 1989, especially the globalization of finance based on free trade. The result has been slow economic growth, increasing income inequality, and thus increasing political polarization for Americans. Real median income in America peaked in 1999 and has decreased 9 percent since. Meanwhile, the Washington bureaucrats who support globalization, free trade, and increasing government power have seen a 25 percent increase. The richest counties now are those surrounding Washington DC.
He cites Schumpeter as predicting that capitalist countries like America will eventually become socialist, meaning giant welfare states. We already saw this move accelerated under Obama, which is why he was so beloved by American elites such as Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, academia, and most importantly the media.
He says all that democracy means is that it gives the elites an arena to compete for power. The last election saw the American establishment lose the 2016 election and it has been using all of its resources, such as the media, to reverse the results of the election. The current nonstop investigations of Trump are part of this syndrome.
Rickards' solutions to prevent a new collapse are smaller banks, fewer derivatives, less debt, and sound money in the form of fixed exchange rates based on gold. He doesn't disclose any political preference but seems to be a libertarian. There is much more to this book but it would take too long to describe.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
rachael deberry
I read voraciously on all things financial and political and can tell you, without reservation, that James Rickard's exposition of America's future is well-researched, personable, and shattering. A cashless world is just the beginning of the machinations the government-controlled world system has up it's sleeve to confiscate your wealth and remaining freedoms. Mr. Richards lays out the plan in stark detail but does not leave you hanging. He gives provides cogent measures you will need to weather the coming storm. Most books on a dystopian future for America highlight one or two "causes" for impending doom but fail to capture the essence of the problem. Rickard's background in finance and complexity theory nail his thesis with irrefutable logic. The book is long but no longer than needed to clinch his argument. A must read!
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
hui jing
Why, when I read James Rickards' new book, especially in the discussion of free trade vs mercantilism, do I think of Steve Bannon, Donald Trump's new senior counsel? I have no idea whether the two have communicated with one another, or even know each other, but I sense a complementary aspect to their world views.
In any event, the book is worthwhile in many ways. I particularly enjoyed the devastating critique of current economists and their dangerous models, which are clung to by their followers even in the face of the clearly damaging effects they have on the economy. The "ice-nine" business is scary, to be sure, but his up-close analysis of G-7 and IMF goings-on makes it persuasive.
Finally, I don't own fine art, gold or land, so I'm one of those who will just have to sit back and watch what happens. But I have no doubt that civic turmoil lies ahead, no matter what.
In any event, the book is worthwhile in many ways. I particularly enjoyed the devastating critique of current economists and their dangerous models, which are clung to by their followers even in the face of the clearly damaging effects they have on the economy. The "ice-nine" business is scary, to be sure, but his up-close analysis of G-7 and IMF goings-on makes it persuasive.
Finally, I don't own fine art, gold or land, so I'm one of those who will just have to sit back and watch what happens. But I have no doubt that civic turmoil lies ahead, no matter what.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
richard burke
So entertaining to read as a history book but other than that, it's the same drumbeat Rickards has had for some time. The quality of the writing and the depth of his knowledge is amazing but take it with a grain of salt and pay attention to your investments without being so paranoid. There is some real truth to his thoughts about "elites", as expressed in the recent elections, and that is where the history lesson really is quite educational.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
sissyt
The Road to Ruin shows you what the global elites have in store for you during the next financial crisis — which could be here any day now. This book is even more essential now that Donald Trump has bucked the elites and won the White House. He might have won the battle, but the elites have a terrifying plan (what Jim calls the "Ice-Nine Plan") to win the war. You need to understand how and where you fit in right now. No one can prepare you like Rickards' does in this book. Unlike many other global-macro books, The Road to Ruin is well-researched and clearly written work with citations to back all claims up. Do yourself a favor and pick up a copy...
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
carolyn svirsky
This book is one step away from a tin foil hat. He says the words global elites more times than I can count, and then wraps it all up in hypocrisy. In one chapter he goes from talking about how he helped Citi Bank pay no taxes (then had to undo some of his work so it wouldn't look suspicious), than goes on about how its the evil global elites plans to make tax havens more visible and transparent. There is a lot interesting historical economics that he talks about, but it is quickly diluted by conspiracy theories, which he then claims are not conspiracy theories. Interesting read if you like to hear about how the new world order is going to take over.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
jolene
I borrowed this book from my local library (sorry the store), hence the non "verified purchaser" status of my review.
James Rickards makes a very compelling argument that the coming global financial crisis, which will be far worse than that of 2008, is virtually unavoidable. It states on the back flap of the book cover: "The most potent form of protection is to arm yourself with knowledge." Reading this book will be a great aid in obtaining valuable knowledge that will be beneficial to you in navigating through these difficult financial times. It will also do what all great books accomplish; it will cause you to THINK.
Great book ... highly recommended!
James Rickards makes a very compelling argument that the coming global financial crisis, which will be far worse than that of 2008, is virtually unavoidable. It states on the back flap of the book cover: "The most potent form of protection is to arm yourself with knowledge." Reading this book will be a great aid in obtaining valuable knowledge that will be beneficial to you in navigating through these difficult financial times. It will also do what all great books accomplish; it will cause you to THINK.
Great book ... highly recommended!
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
roslyn
An interesting read. In the end the advice seems fine, if not all that new. The assessment of the current critical state of things and the nefarious influences all seem real enough. He does include a timeline that is subject to disruption.
In the end, when something shiny (gold) is the best bet for 5000 years, you know somethings wrong.
In the end, when something shiny (gold) is the best bet for 5000 years, you know somethings wrong.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
bharat
Finance is an esoteric and jargon-filled industry but Rickards does a good job describing it in clear language the average reader can understand.
His main point is that international finance is in a more dangerous position now than it was in 2008. At that time about 500 trillion dollars in derivatives collapsed and caused the Great Recession, which he better names the Panic of 2008. Now the value of global derivatives is one quadrillion dollars (a billion trillion) and ten times global GDP.
He says transnational institutions like G20, IMF, and BIS (Bank of International Settlements), which really run the world, have done nothing to prevent a new collapse but have encouraged more global debt. They plan to use the next financial crisis to create a world currency (like SDRs), a world government (like a more powerful G20), and thus one world order. They are using all the hysteria about climate change to push the idea of uniform world law. They have already started a war on cash so that all money is digital which they can then control.
He describes the global financial market as being so complex that no one really understands how it works. It is unpredictable and any event could create a financial panic, as did the subprime implosion in 2008. He believes corporate debt, including all the derivatives, is the most likely catalyst for the next collapse. Only this time the panic will be greater as banks are more leveraged than in 2008. But the exact timing is unpredictable. Nevertheless, he provides a hypothetical scenario of it happening in 2018.
He blames both political parties for helping to create this situation. The main thing was when the Clinton administration repealed Glass-Steagall in 1999, which allowed banks to create derivatives from their subprime loans. The Bush administration then relaxed the regulation of derivatives further, based on its free market philosophy. This combination of derivatives based on toxic loans caused the crash of 2008. He says bankers control Washington which is why little has been done to change the system.
The main plan of financial elites is to expand globalization, which basically started in 1989, especially the globalization of finance based on free trade. The result has been slow economic growth, increasing income inequality, and thus increasing political polarization for Americans. Real median income in America peaked in 1999 and has decreased 9 percent since. Meanwhile, the Washington bureaucrats who support globalization, free trade, and increasing government power have seen a 25 percent increase. The richest counties now are those surrounding Washington DC.
He cites Schumpeter as predicting that capitalist countries like America will eventually become socialist, meaning giant welfare states. We already saw this move accelerated under Obama, which is why he was so beloved by American elites such as Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, academia, and most importantly the media.
He says all that democracy means is that it gives the elites an arena to compete for power. The last election saw the American establishment lose the 2016 election and it has been using all of its resources, such as the media, to reverse the results of the election. The current nonstop investigations of Trump are part of this syndrome.
Rickards' solutions to prevent a new collapse are smaller banks, fewer derivatives, less debt, and sound money in the form of fixed exchange rates based on gold. He doesn't disclose any political preference but seems to be a libertarian. There is much more to this book but it would take too long to describe.
His main point is that international finance is in a more dangerous position now than it was in 2008. At that time about 500 trillion dollars in derivatives collapsed and caused the Great Recession, which he better names the Panic of 2008. Now the value of global derivatives is one quadrillion dollars (a billion trillion) and ten times global GDP.
He says transnational institutions like G20, IMF, and BIS (Bank of International Settlements), which really run the world, have done nothing to prevent a new collapse but have encouraged more global debt. They plan to use the next financial crisis to create a world currency (like SDRs), a world government (like a more powerful G20), and thus one world order. They are using all the hysteria about climate change to push the idea of uniform world law. They have already started a war on cash so that all money is digital which they can then control.
He describes the global financial market as being so complex that no one really understands how it works. It is unpredictable and any event could create a financial panic, as did the subprime implosion in 2008. He believes corporate debt, including all the derivatives, is the most likely catalyst for the next collapse. Only this time the panic will be greater as banks are more leveraged than in 2008. But the exact timing is unpredictable. Nevertheless, he provides a hypothetical scenario of it happening in 2018.
He blames both political parties for helping to create this situation. The main thing was when the Clinton administration repealed Glass-Steagall in 1999, which allowed banks to create derivatives from their subprime loans. The Bush administration then relaxed the regulation of derivatives further, based on its free market philosophy. This combination of derivatives based on toxic loans caused the crash of 2008. He says bankers control Washington which is why little has been done to change the system.
The main plan of financial elites is to expand globalization, which basically started in 1989, especially the globalization of finance based on free trade. The result has been slow economic growth, increasing income inequality, and thus increasing political polarization for Americans. Real median income in America peaked in 1999 and has decreased 9 percent since. Meanwhile, the Washington bureaucrats who support globalization, free trade, and increasing government power have seen a 25 percent increase. The richest counties now are those surrounding Washington DC.
He cites Schumpeter as predicting that capitalist countries like America will eventually become socialist, meaning giant welfare states. We already saw this move accelerated under Obama, which is why he was so beloved by American elites such as Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, academia, and most importantly the media.
He says all that democracy means is that it gives the elites an arena to compete for power. The last election saw the American establishment lose the 2016 election and it has been using all of its resources, such as the media, to reverse the results of the election. The current nonstop investigations of Trump are part of this syndrome.
Rickards' solutions to prevent a new collapse are smaller banks, fewer derivatives, less debt, and sound money in the form of fixed exchange rates based on gold. He doesn't disclose any political preference but seems to be a libertarian. There is much more to this book but it would take too long to describe.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
alphan gunaydin
I read voraciously on all things financial and political and can tell you, without reservation, that James Rickard's exposition of America's future is well-researched, personable, and shattering. A cashless world is just the beginning of the machinations the government-controlled world system has up it's sleeve to confiscate your wealth and remaining freedoms. Mr. Richards lays out the plan in stark detail but does not leave you hanging. He gives provides cogent measures you will need to weather the coming storm. Most books on a dystopian future for America highlight one or two "causes" for impending doom but fail to capture the essence of the problem. Rickard's background in finance and complexity theory nail his thesis with irrefutable logic. The book is long but no longer than needed to clinch his argument. A must read!
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
parisa h taheri
Why, when I read James Rickards' new book, especially in the discussion of free trade vs mercantilism, do I think of Steve Bannon, Donald Trump's new senior counsel? I have no idea whether the two have communicated with one another, or even know each other, but I sense a complementary aspect to their world views.
In any event, the book is worthwhile in many ways. I particularly enjoyed the devastating critique of current economists and their dangerous models, which are clung to by their followers even in the face of the clearly damaging effects they have on the economy. The "ice-nine" business is scary, to be sure, but his up-close analysis of G-7 and IMF goings-on makes it persuasive.
Finally, I don't own fine art, gold or land, so I'm one of those who will just have to sit back and watch what happens. But I have no doubt that civic turmoil lies ahead, no matter what.
In any event, the book is worthwhile in many ways. I particularly enjoyed the devastating critique of current economists and their dangerous models, which are clung to by their followers even in the face of the clearly damaging effects they have on the economy. The "ice-nine" business is scary, to be sure, but his up-close analysis of G-7 and IMF goings-on makes it persuasive.
Finally, I don't own fine art, gold or land, so I'm one of those who will just have to sit back and watch what happens. But I have no doubt that civic turmoil lies ahead, no matter what.
★ ★ ★ ★ ☆
sondra
So entertaining to read as a history book but other than that, it's the same drumbeat Rickards has had for some time. The quality of the writing and the depth of his knowledge is amazing but take it with a grain of salt and pay attention to your investments without being so paranoid. There is some real truth to his thoughts about "elites", as expressed in the recent elections, and that is where the history lesson really is quite educational.
★ ★ ★ ★ ★
melanie lit chick
The Road to Ruin shows you what the global elites have in store for you during the next financial crisis — which could be here any day now. This book is even more essential now that Donald Trump has bucked the elites and won the White House. He might have won the battle, but the elites have a terrifying plan (what Jim calls the "Ice-Nine Plan") to win the war. You need to understand how and where you fit in right now. No one can prepare you like Rickards' does in this book. Unlike many other global-macro books, The Road to Ruin is well-researched and clearly written work with citations to back all claims up. Do yourself a favor and pick up a copy...
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
eric gibb
This book is one step away from a tin foil hat. He says the words global elites more times than I can count, and then wraps it all up in hypocrisy. In one chapter he goes from talking about how he helped Citi Bank pay no taxes (then had to undo some of his work so it wouldn't look suspicious), than goes on about how its the evil global elites plans to make tax havens more visible and transparent. There is a lot interesting historical economics that he talks about, but it is quickly diluted by conspiracy theories, which he then claims are not conspiracy theories. Interesting read if you like to hear about how the new world order is going to take over.
★ ★ ★ ☆ ☆
isabel summers
I read Case for Gold and thus absolutely not interested on this one. Negativity and fear mongering wrapped in endless predictions without proper accounting of accuracy.
This one is probably another waste of time that will only create needless worry to reader ... on something that you can do nothing about anyway.
This one is probably another waste of time that will only create needless worry to reader ... on something that you can do nothing about anyway.
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
deepanjali
I mostly read fiction, but this was a gift from a relative (in law).
He spouted this stuff at a family gathering and I thought I'd give the book a try. I'm glad it was free.
Well, I tried. Read the introduction and Chapter 1, then skipped to the Conclusion.
The repeated reference to Vonnegut's 1963 book and the ice maker certainly seemed out of place in a story about finance.
My degree is in accounting but nothing made much sense to me. If this author helped someone make a lot of money, it was dumb luck!
Norm
He spouted this stuff at a family gathering and I thought I'd give the book a try. I'm glad it was free.
Well, I tried. Read the introduction and Chapter 1, then skipped to the Conclusion.
The repeated reference to Vonnegut's 1963 book and the ice maker certainly seemed out of place in a story about finance.
My degree is in accounting but nothing made much sense to me. If this author helped someone make a lot of money, it was dumb luck!
Norm
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
rachel mariano
If you think "Republican" and thus believe that corporations are people and better than the People (who do all the work) then this is your book. Rickards is an apologist for the corporatocracy that Hoovers your pockets into their off-shore accounts and then laughs at you for being a rube.
★ ★ ☆ ☆ ☆
bradley boldt
I'm giving this book two stars, rather than one, because there are some things regarding our financial system in the book, that are valuable to know. Unfortunately the author exposes his true motive in Chapter 2 ("One Money, One World, One Order"), and the rest of the book is downhill from there.
Richards is an extremely right-wing elitist himself, yet he rails against the world's mysterious other "elitists". Furthermore, in his irrational fear of any form of "one world order", he makes a series of errors, which destroy his own premises.
First of all, the "elite" of the world are not the liberals and environmentalists who worry about global warming, population growth, etc.
The true elite include people like President-Elect Trump and his gang of billionaire buddies, including all the extremely wealthy cabinet members who he is trying to ram through Congress.
It's the 1 to 5% of the wealthiest in the world who represent the negative aspects of a new world order, and their only motive is go acquire
more and more of the world's wealth for themselves.
Any equitable distribution of wealth is anathema to them, as is global warming (since money spent on dealing with global warming would
raise taxes on those who are already wealthiest).
Obviously Rickards sides with those very wealthy, right-wing, power figures that Donald Trump so loves. Trump lied over and over during the pre-election process, claiming he didn't want to cut social security or Medicare, etc. Now that he got "elected" he's suddenly against the new world order, including ObamaCare, Medicare, and most other social and environmental programs.
Of course, Ayn Rand is rolling over in her grave, because now her anti-social, anti-world, anti-environmental (but pro selfishness and self-interest, greediness, etc.) views have found a wealthy benefactor in our new President.
Richards is an extremely right-wing elitist himself, yet he rails against the world's mysterious other "elitists". Furthermore, in his irrational fear of any form of "one world order", he makes a series of errors, which destroy his own premises.
First of all, the "elite" of the world are not the liberals and environmentalists who worry about global warming, population growth, etc.
The true elite include people like President-Elect Trump and his gang of billionaire buddies, including all the extremely wealthy cabinet members who he is trying to ram through Congress.
It's the 1 to 5% of the wealthiest in the world who represent the negative aspects of a new world order, and their only motive is go acquire
more and more of the world's wealth for themselves.
Any equitable distribution of wealth is anathema to them, as is global warming (since money spent on dealing with global warming would
raise taxes on those who are already wealthiest).
Obviously Rickards sides with those very wealthy, right-wing, power figures that Donald Trump so loves. Trump lied over and over during the pre-election process, claiming he didn't want to cut social security or Medicare, etc. Now that he got "elected" he's suddenly against the new world order, including ObamaCare, Medicare, and most other social and environmental programs.
Of course, Ayn Rand is rolling over in her grave, because now her anti-social, anti-world, anti-environmental (but pro selfishness and self-interest, greediness, etc.) views have found a wealthy benefactor in our new President.
★ ★ ☆ ☆ ☆
rawan mohammed
There wasn't any new information about the future of the economy in addition to what he revealed in his previous books. It was mostly formulas and theories only a financial analyst would appreciate. I returned it for a refund.
★ ★ ★ ☆ ☆
kathleen cobcroft
I have not read the book and am mulling doing do - the three stars are because I am forced to give a rating and have no actual basis yet. If I do read it I will update.
What I infer from the comments though is that the book has little actionable information for little guys like us if you buy into his argument - which I do. Do you really think you can buy/own precious metals in this day and age, as an everyman, for example, without that being known by the authorities, fully recorded and set up for confiscation or imprisonment if not forthcoming, if that indeed is the way things go ? And even if not, in a world in the crisis he describes, what would you do with precious metal, much less art or other hard assets, if the global economy has broken down ? Would life as a survivalist be worth living ?
On the other hand, I am old enough and have seen enough crises that were touted as the end of the world at the time, going back to the early 70's stagflation and oil embargo, the Carter inflation, etc., none of which turned out as predicted - probably because not all avalanches produced in complexity theory are negative - some can be positive as well (think emergence of the internet and personal computing devices for two). I just wonder whether he is over-simplifying with his dominoes metaphor. Why aren't his predictions just as unpredictable as any others ?
Another thing I wonder about - how can the "elites" think there will be any "there" there for themselves and their lifestyle, if things break down globally ? Can they be that thoughtless ? Certainly the possibility of a global breakdown of the scale claimed would be a first in human history - maybe no one really can comprehend it.
Which brings me back to - what can we nobodies actually do about it ?
What I infer from the comments though is that the book has little actionable information for little guys like us if you buy into his argument - which I do. Do you really think you can buy/own precious metals in this day and age, as an everyman, for example, without that being known by the authorities, fully recorded and set up for confiscation or imprisonment if not forthcoming, if that indeed is the way things go ? And even if not, in a world in the crisis he describes, what would you do with precious metal, much less art or other hard assets, if the global economy has broken down ? Would life as a survivalist be worth living ?
On the other hand, I am old enough and have seen enough crises that were touted as the end of the world at the time, going back to the early 70's stagflation and oil embargo, the Carter inflation, etc., none of which turned out as predicted - probably because not all avalanches produced in complexity theory are negative - some can be positive as well (think emergence of the internet and personal computing devices for two). I just wonder whether he is over-simplifying with his dominoes metaphor. Why aren't his predictions just as unpredictable as any others ?
Another thing I wonder about - how can the "elites" think there will be any "there" there for themselves and their lifestyle, if things break down globally ? Can they be that thoughtless ? Certainly the possibility of a global breakdown of the scale claimed would be a first in human history - maybe no one really can comprehend it.
Which brings me back to - what can we nobodies actually do about it ?
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
george bragadireanu
The book is just catering to gold theories without sufficient discussions as to why gold is the answer. Many times the proof for the ideas presented are contrived and opposite evidence is ignored. The Shanghai accord is a great example of the cherry picking of 'flips' in favor of his argument while ignoring flips not in his favor. This book will distort your viewpoint of the financial markets and you are better off leaving the poison on the shelf.
★ ☆ ☆ ☆ ☆
renee
Rickards has been 100% wrong about everything for years.. This book is the latest edition to his other books that are based on nonsense and baseless conspiracies. Rickards did NOT predict the financial crisis and was not even around until AFTER it happened. He has no professional track record. But a few years ago after the financial crisis he saw gold being pumped and noticed how so many naive stupid people fell for con men who sell and promote gold and silver, so he entered the same genre and has been writing stupid books catering to conspiracy gold nuts since then. The only people who take his books seriously are wackos who have been conned by the gold con men and they want to read positive things about gold.
Please RateThe Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis