Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It

Josh Ramo, the youngest Senior Editor and Foreign Editor ever at TIME Magazine, is both a great writer and a global citizen. A friend of mine for the past eight years, he now works as Managing Director at Kissinger Associates, Inc., which is owned and managed by Henry Kissinger. I'm not surprised that Josh chose to work for the former Secretary of State, since Josh speaks Mandarin and frequently seeks connection between the U.S. and the world at large. In his latest book, The Age of the Unthinkable, Josh examines recent disruptions to well-established institutions and mental models, and finds solutions to problems from unlikely and far-flung sources.
Some of these unlikely and far-flung sources include the chief information officer of the Hezbollah (Who would even think a terrorist organization has such a position?), the Silicon Valley venture folks who founded Google, President Gorbachev, ground breaking physicists, and others. Tying them together under the common banner of revolutionaries, Josh argues that they are more successful than organized bureaucracies like the State Department, White House, and Pentagon. Josh asks, "Why are these revolutionary models so successful?" and "How might we adapt some of this thinking into our organizations?"
Josh's key findings surface as he investigates the notion of resilience. When the unthinkable and unimaginable happen, and our traditional models aren't equipped to handle the aftermath, we need new and better methods to cope and rebound. In The Age of the Unthinkable, you'll learn some of these methods.
Since he advocates a new manner of thinking (no small topic or feat), this book provides only a taste of the advantages we might enjoy and challenges we might face. Josh makes the complex easy to understand, though, so it is a highly worthwhile read.The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It

POWERFUL. Not a fast fiction novel. Well researched and written. (See Bio and Index at the end of the book.) Found myself rereading sentences and paragraphs to get a glimmer of the significance of what I just read. I'll read the book again and possibly again.

If you are looking to gain a larger perspective on what is happening around us, I would highly recommend "The Age of the Unthinkable". It is based on similar premise to that of "The Black Swan", that the world is dominated by complex systems: political, financial and natural. Systems so complex and unstable that they can not be predicted or even fully understood. Mr Ramo's analysis is very eclectic, weaving together insights from art history, political science, counter terrorism, military history, physics, biology and even the video-game business. Although, it is only 263 pages, I would not call it a quick read; the subject matter is just too deep. I found the book to be thought provoking and well written.

Unfortunately, this book is very long on slobbering affection for Chinese philosophy and war theory and very short on explanation of how the how that wonderful wholistic view of their environment and winning conflicts by not fighting battles Sun Tzu stuff led to the Chinese getting their behinds kicked for 800 years by every two-bit nomad and upstart empire in that corner of the world to include the Mongols, the Manchurians, the British, and the Japanese. And that's what the US should base its national security policy on? Gimma a break. In fact, it wasn't until China adopted and mastered some decidedly Western institutions - communist government and capitolist economy - that it reemerged as a regional power.

Anyway, the whole book isn't worthless. It has a lot of good ideas and food for thought. But the author is WAY out of his depth discussing national security issues, so it should be read with some heavy skepticism

Ramo's book combines considerable scholarship with a lively writing style to outline a world of increasing complexity, mashups and juxtapositions of trends. The same innovation driven "success" that powers Hizbollah also drives Silicon Valley -- distributed power, distributed intelligence and constant adaptation. He's not agreeing with the fanatical objectives of Hizbollah but merely illustrating how it has been successful in surviving. The best firms do the same. He suggests ways to harness the double edge sword of innovation/power to individuals. For me, the book nailed down my suspicions that "stability" will never return. Alvin Toffler noted similar trends thirty years ago but Ramo is more articulate and of course more up-to-date. Definitely a good read.
Bill Yarberry Houston, Texas

The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It

"The Age of the Unthinkable" will appeal to many readers with interests in the alternative explanations of what cause our current econonic / political / social turmoils.

Good points about the book (in no particular order by me):

- New or alternative explanations about old events like the collapse of the Soviet Union, the insider views of Hezbollah's and Isreali's tactics
- synthesis of different fields like Physics, Social Sciences, Psychology, Political Science, Foreign relations, History to explain complexities of events
- Integrative or holistic vs reductionist thinking, Eastern vs Western cultural influences on our perspectives
- A constant reminder for readers that things are not as simple as other pundits / talking heads were telling us because they were often proved wrong
- Individual actions could carry much more significance than normally thought, but no guarantee
- Distributive intelligence and resilient system / organization are 2 concepts that interest me the most, and give me much inspiration and hope for the future

Weak points about the book (also in no particular order)

- Every age is "the age of the unthinkable" since human existence
- Joshua Ramo failed to make a strong final impression on me. I can't even summarize the central thesis of this book
- Disjointed points of views, scattered examples in various fields, superficial or clearly biased extractions of lesson learned surely stimulate or agitate readers of strong biases of themselves. In other words, most examples and arguments are not convincing enough. If prior famous people quoted in the book proved to be wrong, much more would be required before I believe the version of reality or prognostications offered by the author.

My final word about this book: 6 good points and 3 weak points, the math is simply in favor of the book. Strong recommendation.

In increasingly troubled times we can either accelerate blindly toward the precipice or we can embrace and thrive on chaotic unpredictability. Joshua Cooper Ramo suggests and paths the latter. A good, thought-provoking read.

I found this book enlightening. Ramo does an excellent job of documenting the complexity of the problems we face and why our conventional wisdom will not solve these. He emphasizes the need to look at these challenges as unstable systems and to develop a deep understanding of how these systems work in order to develop strategies to counter these challenges in the future.

The Age of the Unthinkable is a passionate defense of creative thinking in the face of the stagnation and fear that steers many of our decisions as a country and as individuals. While some reviewers have criticized its "fuzziness" I don't believe that the author's intention was to write a policy brief. Instead he encourages, through anecdotal real world examples, re-thinking powered by compassion and by creativity. The "Tiger in the Forest" section gives a thought provoking look at Eastern vs. Western thinking patterns (Ramo lives part of the year in Beijing) that I read and discussed with several friends. The chapter gave form to a series of conversations that naturally tended to specific issues in our lives as individuals and as Americans. This is the book's strength. Its lack of detailed solutions gives the reader space to create their own. The book serves as a kind of intellectual fuel to open, collaborative, and resourceful solution engineering -- the opposite of what Ramo calls "narrow gazing".

I had the privilege of hearing Joshua Cooper Ramo speak as part of a panel at the Los Angeles Festival of Books. The title of the panel was Packaging Fear: America & the Art of Persuasion. I bought his book on the spot and chatted briefly with him. The book is a page turner. One can open it up to any section and be completely engrossed. Mr. Ramo is a gifted writer and speaker. His insights and revelations have filled my head. This is a superb book that is of the utmost importance.

A grasping, stupid but obviously well connected author (to get such a moronic book published and then distributed), Joshua Cooper Ramo, wrote a book he called "The Age of the Unthinkable". He should have called it "Writing a Book without Thinking". I suppose he envied the success of that "Tipping Point" book, and supposed any anecdotal book could do well enough to pay him for his time. I am sad that I bought the thing, as I only helped him to pay off on cynical argument.

What is wrong with the book? Well, while we hope that intellectual books should be helpful, this book, while looking for anything helpful, is largely pointless. But, following the books logic, it is actually partisan to a great deal of harm. What the book does, over and over again with its anecdotes, is show how screwed up the World is, but then again and again point out how a great many people, while contributing plenty to the disasters and catastrophes, are having great fun and making some big profits. Again and again the underlying intent of the book is to raise the question, that if so many people are still making such a `killing', then how bad could it all be? As long as some people are still getting rich, it must still be all okay. Never once does the author evaluate the possibility of whether or not these new pockets of private special interests are helping or hurting the cause for the survival of our obviously endangered Civilization. Like so much in modern Media Thought, the good of the many is sacrificed to the lusts and decadence of the most successfully selfish Individual. We are all playing "King of the Mountain" and as long as we can all still point to a Winner, then the Game is not in vain. It never seems to matter that the game makes Losers of us all, all but the morally worst among us.

Oh, I don't mean to imply that it was all about money. Often enough the author goes from speaking of making a financial killing to simply speaking in praise of actual murder. After all, who can speak of success in this Modern Age of ours without touching upon facility in slaughter as a huge plus in making one's way in today's quick paced World. We have anecdotes of an Israeli Intelligence Officer who overwhelmed every expectation on how many Palestinians, Lebanese, and Syrians he was able to have assassinated. How useful! All this unjust State Murder, practically from his own hand, could cause even greater Outrage all throughout the entire Middle East, necessitating even more and more Military Expenditures, even more Grants and Loans from the United States - all contributing to strengthen the position of the Special Interests that hired him on to begin with. What a great success! No Special Interest is really Evil and Corrupt that can still hire such bright and talented individuals. There is no Wrong that a little Cleverness cannot make Right. And the author gives us quite the moral guarantee that this is all simply wonderful!

But the author wished to be seen as being politically even-handed and fair, and so he treats us to a chapter and a half on how wonderful the Terrorist Organization Hizb'allah is. You see, being so proficient at staying ahead of Our Heroes, the Israeli Army, Hisb'allah couldn't be all bad! Again, the notion that Success justifies anything, everything. Are we ever encouraged to wonder how Hisb'allah had so come to dominate Lebanese Politics? A bunch of men with guns and ammo belts. Hmmmm? The author never suggests any other possibility for Hizb'allah's advancement other than that they must have been exceptionally smart, kind and caring. Not a word that could raise the awkward suspicion that Hisb'allah had only out-murdered all other factions in a bloody civil-war, but, then again, the Author did not need to hide from any such conclusion, as it would only fit well enough with his primary premise - anything for the sake of success. I suppose the only Reform our Author could suggest, if he could think that far, would be that people should be paid directly for such large Body Counts. If we can Praise Murder, then surely we can Pay for it!

Of course, the Author, knowing all this, also knows that it would be in horribly bad taste to spell out any of his implied conclusions. So he presents all of his arguments, while consistently leaving out the very last steps, the conclusions, the morals, or rather the anti-morals, of the story. Every chapter of the book therefore comes off as inconclusive. Just when the time comes to sum up his Point, he doesn't. The end of the book suffers in the same way, that the Author couldn't possibly admit to the grand purpose of his book without appearing to be the very devil incarnate himself. But he had to say something. So he tells us that the entire planet might be saved if we follow the tenure of all the examples he has given - the Israeli Assassins, the Hizb'allah Terrorists, the various Wall Street Predators who DIDN'T get caught, AND if we are all decent and caring. DECENT and CARING!? Didn't he listen to himself? How possibly could Decency and Caring have anything to do with anything he had just set forth!? Never for even a single moment had he turned aside from success stories in murder, mayhem and economic anarchy, to suggest that decency or caring could ever ruin a competitor or kill an enemy. Oh, wait, he in fact did suggest that murders do indeed lead to further murders. So sad. But he leaves it there, never proposing how any Special Interest Group could ever possibly bring this Killing to an End by somehow monetizing the interests of Peace. Again, the Author is so thoughtless! Given just a moment to think about it, the Answer is Clear as a Bell - we could keep people Hostage - instead of just killing everybody, like all his other Success Stories, we could make people pay to stay Alive. Peace at last! Peace at Last! Thank God Almighty, Peace at last! Peace and a huge Profit Margin! Finally, decency and caring triumph!

Now shouldn't we wonder that all of this moral ambiguity and applied cynicism - cynicism with a hug and a smile - must have made sense to the author. Well, after all, he was a protégé of Henry Kissinger. Just think how many resumes Henry must have plowed through before he found this Star. Then one must wonder of the absolute miracle that any Morality is left intact in the World while all the substantial rewards go to Evil. Virtues only consolation is the thought that all the Evil People must find it an absolute bitch to compete with each other. Success is so Fine, but they all look so tired out from the Effort. Even at the top of the World, Henry looked like a broken man.

Oh, and the book was so needlessly short. Sixteen dollars should have bought a few hundred pages more than 250. Plenty more could have been looked at to support the Authors ideas of gleaning Profits out of Chaos. Why, it is a shame the book did not look back to support itself with History. There could have been so much! For instance, how helpful might it have been to compare the slow and stagnating progress of Civilization in Europe of the Ninth and Tenth Century, as compared to admirably quick Success the Vikings had in sweeping all that wealth into their own pockets almost overnight. The Monasteries took centuries to accumulate what the Vikings could steal on a good evening. What a wonderful business plan those Vikings had! And "barbarian" is only just a name. Don't be misled by mere labels. What really matters is the Success! Yes, burning down a Cathedral to steal a candlestick might seem such a waste. But there's no Overhead! There is no Candlestick like a free and clear Candlestick!

Oh, and the author might have given us an example from the Natural World. For instance, the Human Body itself. So slow it is. It takes a life time to grow a Human Body. Even in a child, weeks or months can go by without even noticing any increase, any obvious growth, not even incrementally. But a Tiger could rip a child apart in a minute. So we should all be tigers! Or even vultures. Even maggots can reduce a body to bones in just a few days. Violence and Decay are so quick, so Successful! Abandon Life and all those slow processes. Rome was not built in a Day, so to hell with Rome! Let us destroy instead. In these days, to be successful, one must be a Predator or at least a Scavenger. But be sure to be decent and caring about it! As long as we can add a kind word, any sin is forgiven.

After reading The Black Swan I thought this book would be repetitive but I was wrong. Both cover similar ground but in very different ways. I've asked all of my coworkers to read both and they are now approaching work challenges in new ways.

Individuals need to find intentions that deal with the reality that has escaped from mass psychology getting along by going along with the highest bidder fiddle and faddle of millionaires and billionaires owning all the hypocrisy. Joshua Cooper Ramo helps us get in touch with ways in which a world that keeps changing is not putting a magic number in catch a falling star, put it in your pocket, and save it for a rainy day.

Finally a very needed book that analyzes the world in an out of the box way is refreshing and might just might bring some solutions to this complicated world we live in. It is very well written and I definitely recommend it to anybody with an open mind and who is ready to live in this new village called ''planet earth''

This was an interesting book that makes you wonder if thinking out of the box can begin to solve the problems that society faces. How approaching a situation from a different angle could be all the difference. Flexibility and resilience seem to be what's needed in the new world.

Very informative. After reading this book I understood that immediate changes in the way our government deals with other countries should be of
Top priority. I also believe that our government officials in all
branches do not understand this and they are putting the USA in serious danger.

Hopefully many of the conservative thinkers may take a hint from many of the insightful perspectives that are perveyed by Joshua Cooper Ramo. I have suggested this book to many open minded thinkers. I am glad to see many of the media outlets giving this book such a wide exposure.

Glen G. Rasmussen DC

I found Ramo's thoughts insightful regarding todays leaders. The are not creative enough to solve todays complex issue for the country. They live in a world of 20-30 years ago. This is a dangerous combination. Great job Josh!

This is the first book that truly explains WHY our world is changing and gives us the HOPE that the world can be a better place shaped by technology, innovative leaders and great ideas. It provides a whole new framework for understanding how different societies will come together to create a new and positive world order.

These days, most books and articles just talk about the `what'. Ramo give us the 'story behind the story' as he synthesizes the key people, forces, beliefs and trends that are shaping the economy, politics and religion.

For me, Ramo has a great deal of credibility. Anyone who has worked with Henry Kissinger for years brings a real-life perspective that we don't get from talking heads on television or newspaper columnists. He's the right guy to write about the unthinkable revolution taking place around us.

He tells a set of very engaging stories that bring the reader into places such as a tent with Hamas leaders to the studios of the most successful video game developer. He then uses those his travels to explain why so many things in the world order have changed dramatically - in a way that no one could have expected or contemplated.

I now know so much more and can both think and talk about all the challenges we are facing with more insight. As importantly, I have a greater sense of the solutions.

Overall, this is a very readable and valuable book. I've recommended it to my friends and am buying copies for the people I work with.

In 1997, Apple launched a campaign with one simple message "Think Different". 12 years ago it was inconceivable how necessary to our survival those two words would be in 2009. Joshua Cooper Ramo, an analyst and former Foreign Editor of Time, takes this Apple campaign slogan and sprints with it, full speed ahead, to help us understand where we are and what we'll need to do to pull ourselves together. His new book, The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New Global Order Constantly Surprises Us and What to Do About It, is a beacon for those who have been looking for straight-talk about our current economic crisis and how you and I, everyday people, can move forward.

For my full review, visit: [...]

Ramo is obviously one well connected gentleman, a point he isn't adverse to reminding his readers, and he has the mindset of rather glib, yet also well informed and paradigm hopping media culture man. He aims for a certain gravitas then relaxes into a breezy, well, not superficiality by any means, but a kind of surface gloss of his material that suggests a preference for breadth over depth.

Having said that, his best side is taking the contrary perspective and acknowledging that some basic aspects of academic and political (not to mention media) culture may be fundamentally broken and the factors we take to be solutions could actually be acting as accelerants of social breakdown or systemic catastrophe...

For example, Alan Greenspan expressed that he had discovered "a flaw" in his basic worldview, perhaps a fatal flaw... although he tantalizes us with this point, we never learn exactly what this flaw consists of or what Greenspan did with his increased understanding.

He lauds Hans J. Morgenthau as a seminal thinker in international relations and the rise of the Realist school as opposed to an Ideological framework and then expresses a belief that Morgenthau's model also might contain an essential flaw, it excludes the power of moral certitude and what could be counted as irrationality as ordering force. Witness Hezbollah, a far geekier and strangely hip organization than the western media can either comprehend or accept.

Then we take a small tour of some of the newer branches of physics... and "physics" is a concept quite dear to Ramo, how is it that these sudden shifts and instabilities lead to a new permanent order of constant change, and how do we form institutional structures to work with these processes ?

All in all, a thought provoking, diverting book, however, given the potentials of his subject, it feels as if it were written far too quickly to have the necessary rigor of a significant work.

Ramo has written a book for the very situation we are all facing - a complex world where traditional approaches are failing. Not just failing but often these old approaches exacerbate the very problem they are trying to address.

Ramo has spent the last few years in China understanding how this rising giant will change the global scene in a non-linear manner.

As an entrepreneur, I find the approaches of current foreign policy experts to be puzzling. Ramo points to a fresh approach which can break through key foreign policy logjams.

I hope our own state department will buy some copies soon...

J

Ramo's starting point is that ideas and institutions are failing. Our global war on terror produces more terrorists, not less, efforts to prevent the financial crisis cause it to happen, efforts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons cause more nations to pursue their acquisition, nobody predicted the fall of the U.S.S.R., and efforts to produce peace in the Middle East actually bring less. Other points that motivated Ramo's thinking include China's amassing $2 trillion of U.S. debt while its workers earn about $7/day, Treasury Secretary Paulson's misreading the early stages of our recent near financial collapse, and the lack of progress on global warming.

Ramo contends that these situations require new, complex thinking. Actually, they are much more easily addressed. Some are factually incorrect, and the rest more easily explained without Ramo.

I am unaware of any substantive pre-2008 efforts to prevent the current financial crisis, let alone a causal link between their execution and the sub-prime mess. Nor is there any evidence that efforts to bring peace to the Middle East have made things worse, or efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons has encouraged more nations to pursue them (Bush 43's preemptive invasion of Iraq to "stop Saddam's WMD program" doesn't count because it was insane). More importantly, Ramo offers no such evidence - he just makes the conclusion.

Lack of progress on global warming and the war on terror are easily explained by Bush '43 ignorance and/or malfeasance; Secretary Paulson's efforts to talk up the economy are simply part of his former job description (the market has a strong psychological component).

Ramo correctly asserts that the U.S.S.R.'s collapse has not yet been explained, then offers one that is patently ridiculous - that those at and near the top preferred collapse because they would come out on top again! In other words, it's then-current leaders and to-be leaders supported the risk and chaos of revolution so they could enjoy stability! (Ramo didn't even bother to ask former Premier Gorbachev for his thoughts.)

And finally, how did 1.3 billion Chinese end up holding $2 trillion of U.S. debt? With hard work and a 50% savings rate, combined with the U.S. myth that becoming the world's largest debtor nation while losing millions of jobs to Free Trade was good for the U.S.

Bottom Line: Ramo's book is a hodge-podge of unanswered questions, factual errors, and total ignorance of the point of Occam's razor.